Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 13 2020)
Weekly- obviously- still in consolidation and local “decline” of momentum. TK momentum histogram presented us with bearish crossover, which as the name suggests is not bullish itself. Price Action wise, we have closed somewhat of more bullish candle than not, that would smoothly engulf prior week’s price range. Still holding MA50 support which is definite indication that it still remains on the more bullish side of the long-term uptrend aka we haven’t seen long-term sell signal as of yet per the price action – moving average correlation, which must be present for validity. We are still trading inside consolidation after breakout of the long-term semi-bear market downtrend and consolidating below the resistance of 10.5k, which overall is more bullish than not. Any major buy/sell signal would appear ONLY after breakout above 10.5k or breakdown below 8k. Breakdown and ugly bearish close of a week below SM50 weekly would bring early warning to the short signal. Doesn’t look likely as of now.
Daily is in a very interesting configuration to me. It’s consolidative nature is out of question, yet it is hard to classify that is a specific sort of chart pattern for a few reasons. Sequence of Higher Lows with a sequence of High, Higher High and subsequent Lower Highs. Unquestionably, as any consolidation what’s most important is range high-low distance 10.5-8k that defines the target range for either direction breakout. Momentum is consolidating just like the price action below the resistance of SMA50. For any cleaner direction price needs a strong push/whale stimulus. Until then it’s guessing what a whale will do and naturally not much more than a gamble when trading low timeframes. MTF is out of direction on the daily chart, which doesn’t provide bitcoin with clean play setup for MTF traders. It does provide opportunity for altcoins to grow though on declining market dominance of bitcoin (decline in interest to trade btc due to lack of movement)
Middaily picture (at the moment of writing) already broke out above MA50 resistance. It needs to reclaim SMA100 as a new support to validate the bullish breakout and continue to retest pre-breakdown level of 9571. If broken and daily closes through this level, the next serious resistance is at 10035 and 10500. Momentum is bullish with histogram turned positive (bullish TK momentum crossover). ATR on middaily scale also at lows with average 14-period middaily volatility at 140$, which shows how steady and flat past week was. Stochastic factor of the birbicator oscillator has lots of room to grow to the upside until it reaches overbought area 80-100. MTF bias is still neutral-bullish (not bullish) until it reclaims SMA100 resistance, so technical invalidation is definitely on the table (but much less probable right now) ONLY with daily close below 200-middaily average at 8600. Unless that happens, BTC is still consolidation with increasing bullish potential.
MTF session trading around the down trendline inside MTF range, which overall is not as bullish for the breakout as if it was if btc traded in an uptrend. Any directional movement in a higher timeframe sideways is more vulnerable and by definition sprinkled with indecision from investors. Volatility at the lows per ATR as well, which brings high chances of massive breakout coming anytime soon. As the research shows, typical breakout timings align around middaily close, 4 pm UTC close, daily close. Until then please make sure to lock in profits, trail up stops.
Hourly sessions oscillate around MA50, 100, 200 setup of short-term averages which all together have presented BTC/USD with bullish crossover. Short-term price action has been trading inside 8930-9700 range past weeks with neutral level of 50% retracement at 9314 resistance. Per any range method of trading, when price trades above mid-range the bias is short-term bullish more than bearish and hence more expected to retest range highs. Opposite direction would mean rejection of the mid-range level towards the range lows. Personally, I’m the least of a fan for trading inside-range price action. I’d highly recommend wait for either direction breakout: upside break above 9700 to reclaim it as a new support OR breakdown short setup on the retest of 8900s newly created resistance. ATR volatility at the rate of 30-40$ of hourly price change. To sum up, bitcoin has started to boil stronger than before. LTF-MTF it’s still lacking any actual upside/downside direction and any short-term “good-looking” setups can easily be invalidated any second BECAUSE of such nature of any sideways movement. Long-term weekly scanner indication turned from bullish for weekly to neutral, which technically speaking slightly decreased the bullishness of the setup, while monthly is still the leading long-term bias shaper to me, which remains bullish for now.
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