Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 6 2021)
Weekly chart is showing one and the same triangle concept ever since 30000s. We’re slowly approaching to my upper target level for the coil potential resistance inside 53-58k region confirmed by daily timeframe volume profiles and price action key levels defined by pre-breaker weekly candles. The weekly confirms the levels for selloff expectations to be 52924-58305. In this ceiling area Id expect bitcoin to revert back to the 50-week mean, which currently is at 37000s and until the mean reversion occurs MA50 should get close to 40000 already.
The momentum analysis shows very strong trend and no signs of exhaustion just yet which is definitely good news for bulls. Should this trend remain unchanged in case we over shoot the said 53-58k region, it may equally breach the new ATH levels. In my opinion, it’s less likely and just because of numerous potential reversal symptoms in 53-58k zone, I’d suggest you take profits after 80% potential upside rally while we’re still in lower volume Q3.
Im obviously happy to be wrong about 53-58k targets and breaking through new ATH is surely a wet dream for many bulls and rather matter of time.
That said, the seasonality effect suggests that Septembers have always been negative for bitcoin on average, contrary to most of the other months, if not all. Take that historical record and apply accordingly.
PlanB suggests the monthly close around or higher than 43k which in my opinion is correct and aligns well with my thesis of closing the month lower than the monthly open and at the same this being result of prior visit in high 30000s or low 40000s area.
Daily chart shows beautiful reclaim of 200day average with a strong close of the day yesterday confirming the further upside breakout direction towards 53-58k given in June-July periods.
Notice how well the volume profile from before yesterdays weekly close correlates with other averages showing clearly where the supports area. Mixture of volume weighted average prices (blue, yellow) aligns perfectly with 50-day average to provide bulls with strong support in 42.2-43.8k zone, backed additionally by volume profile.
Fast pacing 50day average should eventually cross over MA200 in the next few days which will confirm another golden cross and bullish long-term tendency for bitcoin. If that happens, it will provide bulls with additional support at 45k, which until then will have improved for the said aVWAPs in a way so that it all provides one clear support zone improved from 42-43k regions, into 45k regions. Then it could work as MTF strong support which in case of failure to hold BTC against bears, could give the lower target from 50-week average support between 37k and 40k as given in the prior chart analysis.
As long as we trade and keep closing candles over 50-51k supports locally, the targets are 53k, 55k, 58k.
It’s more than certain that the crowds will see extreme greed picking up again and as always, crowds are always wrong about the extremes. When they get too cocky about their longs, drop your long bags aka Take Profits on them.
This middaily chart is rather simple case to analyze as everything had already been posted as attached and warned about early 53-58k breakout signals. They’ve got confirmed right now without a single piece of a doubt additionally by super powerful upside breakout candle with yesterday’s daily close.
Short term price action breaks through the LTF-MTF average volatility showing that bulls are locally stronger than the recent sideways tendency confirming the solid breakout into 53-58k territory.
Momentum is a bit overbought of course but it’s no wonder after a massive 73%+ up so it should not surprise anybody.
Again, unless we see a fail with daily/weekly close below 50k, 53-58k is my target.
MTF chart is showing that the visible failed bull flag evolved into a rectangle/range with boundaries pretty much defined by the orange/gray zones for demand and supply. The said zones are additionally confirmed by the averages. Ex-supply zone evolved into a new demand zone based on the polarity change principle. It’s additionally backed by MA50 at 49k. The old demand zone works just as a lower demand region around 47k.
Note that the MA200 black curve has moved from 44k to 47k now and because of that it works as a dynamic support area.
Failure to hold the new demand zone suggests the next failure target would be demand zone #2 coming next.
LTF chart suggests quite a simple case for volume based averages aVWAPs providing BTCUSD bulls with 49.7k and 51k. In case 51k fails to hold bulls, the next short-term support is at 49.7k, unsurprisingly.
51k aVWAP aligns ideally with clear horizontal level at 51000 by the prior high which has just been broken through.
Also worth keeping your eyes on the dashed trendline for early trendline breakdowns and signs of early reversals.
The chart suggests well aligned tendency on price action and NUPL trends. It shows the market is rather in healthy zone rather than divergent in any form.
Currently at 0.597, the ratio suggests the more taking profits should occur, the higher up the scale it goes.
No signs of reversal or divergence means upside trend continuation.
Currently at 79 points on the scale out of 100, showing extreme greed.
The same people who were bearish on 30k breakdown are now turning more and more bullish as they’re loading their longs right now. That’s straight forward interpretation of fear/greed index indications the way I read it.
Crowds are always right in the middle of trends, but always wrong at the extremes. Crowds are getting cocky and bullish. Hence the more it intensifies, the more profits you should be taking.