Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 30 2020)
Daily session is trading clearly inside Tuesday’s daily range showing clear consolidation, which is still hoovering above daily VWAP showing local bullishness. As long as the weighted average is held, BTC/USD is more likely to approach MA50 resistance confluent with horizontal resistance of 11000. Key daily resistance levels are 11000, 11500, 11900-12000. Key daily supports: 10500, 10170-10300 that stands for the volume spike at that levels. It is so meaningful, because it represents certain liquidity peak level, at which the biggest number of transactions were closed. Once this level was serving as a resistance before the upside breakout to 11000, the break through this resistance meant that now it is serving as a proportionally stronger support. Breakdown and upside invalidation scenario could be associated with downside break through the support of 10200-10800 day thrust candle.
P.S. September has just closed at 10780, which is not that bad at all as it shows a form of SFP (Swing Failure Pattern), which proves that despite key support break, there occurred to be enough bullish power to pull price back above the broken support, creating a intra-month demand zone as a result.
Hourly candles seem to be forming Head & Shoulders pattern all over again. The head seems to have shaped after instant flash drop with the size of 200$ 10800-10600. The base size of the pattern reaches 350$ and in case of actual breakdown it would mean the technical target of 10300 retest. A drop here would prove bitcoin is still inside a short-term non-directional movement i.e. horizontal trend. As long as it stays within horizontal trend territory there is not going to be any reliable setup or formation that one could blindly long or short. Not until there comes an actual momentum for the movement. The momentum can only be gained for the uptrends by increased buying pressure and sequence of aggressive higher highs and higher lows. Analogically, the bearish momentum is created by breaking supports and sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Head & Shoulders pattern, as any other consolidation form, can easily become significant trend continuation pattern, which in this case could also mean the upside break above 11000. If such comes, the higher high would be made, bulls would gain even more momentum and the result would be about bullish expansion towards 11900s resistance due to cascade of liquidations of over-leveraged shorts trying to prematurely sell H&S formation – short squeeze. Don’t forget to build up your knowledge and attend every single webinar of the free trading congrees, which is about to end along with last ever -60% discounts for our exclusive memberships, where I will personally donate % share to a parrot sanctuary and a charity, so that by joining The Nest to improve your trading, you will also improve animals and humans lives. Offer is limited, so make sure to book it on our website while it lasts.
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