Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 29 2021)
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart is trapped within very narrow range currently. Bollinger Bands suggest the average volatility ranges between 40.6k and 44.6k giving roughly 4000 usd bandwidth. This suggests that either direction the breakout happens, we could expect 4000 usd distance to be added in the breakout direction. In other words, “healthy” upwards breakout target is 48.6k and for the downwards breakout it is 36-37k.
Currently, 50-week average is at 38.6k so in case of another unpredicted FUD news release from China bans, FED, etc. we could see a temporary breach beneath 38.6k and if that happens, then 36-37k should serve as a strong support.
Overall, aVWAPs analysis suggest the orange volume based mean sets BTCUSD price as fair at 43628, whie it’s slowed down and momentum and after have a rally up, now it’s seeing proper slowdown in sideways direction. This confirms that on average, bitcoin is going in a sideways range. Upper aVWAP black curve anchored at the 53k highs, unveil fair price of bitcoin to be 44907.
There’s also potential falling wedge chart pattern marked with dotted bounds.
Locally bitcoin is moving inside a form of a symmetrical triangle within extreme fear environment at total of 20-25% decline from 53k highs. More often than not, consolidation within extreme fear bears the marks of accumulation more than distribution, making it usually good buying opportunity for position traders.
MTF 4H:
Bitcoin’s chosen to move inside a contracting consolidation pattern oscillating around previous range floor. So far, the demand zone has been respected while the declining volatility would suggest that it’s having less and less impact.
The chart pattern of a symmetrical triangle (Id not classify that as a bearish pennant) seems to be having a lot of intra-fakeouts happening on micro timeframes which eventually construct the triangle. As long as BTCUSD is trading within the demand zone without clean breakdown and successful retest (so far only fakeouts on the bottom), then I would not really suggest anybody short into demand zone without such confirmation.
Volume profile’s suggested 45-46k as the main levels of interest for bulls to break through and sustain trading above it. It’s teasing bulls well to an extent where the majority of traders for bitcoin are extremely scared and fear at irrational levels while it’s doing nothing else but ranging – not even going down.
Demand zone still is determined between 39.6k and 42.2k. Supply zone is 50-53k with mid-range stop 45-46k on the way up. Potential targets given in 12h chart analysis, apply here as well.
NUPL
The market is back inside optimism/anxiety stage based on onchain insights. NUPL at 0.485 suggests the market is not so much leveraged when compared with e.g. 2 weeks ago.
Final leg up thesis remains valid and ultimate exit signal is given when NUPL goes > 0.75. Once that happens, there should be only a couple of days-weeks, until the blow-off top concludes.
FEAR/GREED INDEX
The crowd’s sentiment barometer suggests 24 points on the scale out of 100 and marks it as extreme fear. It’s one point lower than yesterday showing the crowd fears more. Just like in previous cases, extreme fear historically has always been about much better buying opportunity than it was for selling. I’d expect this time to be no different. Price action consolidates around the support within the demand zone inside extreme fear region. This could be read much more as accumulation than distribution imo. Also, note that crowds are always wrong at the extremes.
They tend to exaggerate and be extremely salty about the market because they’ve either lost money and blame everybody but themselves for it, or they’ve missed the chance and the market rallied without them. The latter would be more of disbelief. More insights in exclusive video report from me for our premium members. On the missing out note, you don’t want to miss out on our ongoing discounts granted for your crypto payments for joining as exclusive members. The longer the duration you pick to purchase, renew, prolong, upgrade your favorite program, the greater the discount ranging from 10 to 30% in total.
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