Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 28 2020)
Weekly closed as a spinning top kind of a candle respecting key local resistance of pre-breakdown level 11000. This level is of key important for bitcoin from the medium-term perspective. When weekly sessions closes above 11000. Interestingly enough, the most important technical level of the entire past year has been 9800 as the price by volume profile would suggest. That seems to be the perfect support retest back in August, which means that there are very high chances that if 11000 is reclaimed as a new support, the new highs over 12500 are going to be created. Until then, key long-term support is 9800.
Daily chart proves that 10350 was in fact strongest support area based on volume profile peak. Right now bitcoin is trading above VWAP and consolidating intraday below 11k resistance of significant importance. The confluence comes from: horizontal pre-breakdown support turned into resistance, MA50, MTF weekly resistance. Until it breaks out above the descending channel, it’s not fully confirmed with complete bullish setup for the MTF upthrust movements. If breakout is successfully reclaimed with a retest of 11k level being a new support, then BTC/USD would most likely follow through towards the highs area of 12500. Until it breaks out of the channel, it is “trapped” in a sandwich between 200-day average support and 50-day average resistance.
Middaily setup is clearly tapping into the resistance area – LTF supply zone coming from a combination cluster of H&S neckline and pre-breakdown support that once broken turned into resistance. As mentioned in the #video-report, key for bullish bias is to break above LTF supply 11-11.3k and then successfully retest it. Until that happens, there are chances of rejecting these levels or faking out the breakout. Momentum is aligning well towards the bullish scenario and in case it happens, the downtrend correction trendline is going to be broken and BTC/USD should soon follow through towards the highs of 12400-12600 supply.
MTF picture is clean. Classic breakout above consolidation proving the uptrend continuation as long as bitcoin stays above MA200 support. Local support is 10800 provided by the prior resistance broken and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) marked as a violet curve. From MTF perspective, it’s crucial to hold the support cluster of 10600-10800 which is the support range from MA50, VWAP, and MA200. In case of faking out and meeting strong fundamental selling pressure, e.g. due to DXY fluctuations or US presidential elections generating uncertainty, we could expect 10.2k lows retested.
LTF picture is proving there is bullish pressure and momentum developing, visible as the bullish MA50/200 crossover that confirms short-term buy signal. Key local support zone is 10800-10830 (horizontal support and MA50 support). In case of severe aggressive breakdown of these levels, prior range 10550-10800 breakout and bullishness are going to be invalidated and traders could expect short-term retest of 10550-10600 lows. Breakout above local range of 10830-11000 would bring 11100+ levels on the table for bitcoin. Besides, make sure to discover full scope of our newest podcast with one of the biggest legends of youtube for investors – Mark Moss. Quite shocking data regarding COVID-19 and financial markets correlations revealed. Check link below.