Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 22 2021)

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart shows off subsequent cases of fakeouts aka bear traps after making new lows. Simply, new low is made but then price comes back within the same session to the levels back above the broken support, adding hence more significance and confirmation to the support area. It expresses the liquidity hunting and whale engineering to get bitcoin cheap. It’s of course not as cheap as it was 3 years ago, but it’s still cheap enough locally after getting 20-30% discount vs the price 2 weeks ago. It’s a fair deal and good risk/reward for big traders, whales, institutions to load up before the final mainstream rally kicks in within the next few months.

Currently BTCUSD is trading below its aVWAPs and right over 50-week moving average being the ultimate support imo. Of course, unless unpredicted black swan, military conflicts or global financial crisis kicks in unexpectedly.

All together combined is the reason that buying bitcoin between 37k and 42k is probably much better opportunity than selling into it. I’ve personally deployed more than $500k usd of profits to buy this dip. IMO this is the last dip of this kind before the new ATH comes in.

Local resistances are 43.8k and 45.8k, over which 50k retest is likely.

MTF 4H:

There’s the final battle between bulls and bears where bitcoin is technically at the verge of either faking out the breakdown confirming the bullish (orange) thesis or breaking down towards mid 30000s putting the triangle concept at tiny risk, although I would not worry about it too much just yet.

The two scenarios show:

ORANGE: fakeout concept where the dips below the range support are aggressively bought back (so far likely) right before BTCUSD goes back above the support and closes a day over it leading towards 45-46k and 49-50k resistances.

BLACK: breakdown gets confirmed with a successful bearish retest and rejection of previous support which now would become the resistance confirmed due to polarity change. This would lead to mid 30000s which Id personally still expect to be good buying opportunity, as reasoned before for 37-38k 50-week moving average mean reversion.

For now, it’s waiting for the daily close and the market to decide.

NUPL

As glassnode reminds, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric can also be calculated by subtracting realised cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap.

Currently trading at 0.48 it proves that a lot of profits have got wiped out from liquidations and realized by the short-positioned whales. The market has cleared and reset to the levels from early August when bitcoin was trading at 38k

The lower in the yellow zone per NUPL, the better buying opportunity before the final legup.

FEAR/GREED INDEX

Extreme fear is back! The index hand went down to 21 points on the scale which is 1 point higher than I expected but it still marks the most important essential information – the market fear is extreme. And crowds are always wrong at the extremes so selling into current lows is confirmed to be rather a bad deal than good. That’s also a buying opportunity for institutions as it’s been confirmed in past days.

I promise you one thing here for sure, institutions, firms, hedge funds, walmarts, etc – these firms consist of and are run by people who have exactly the same struggles, questions as most of the traders. “Should we buy now or wait?”. Here’s how it works:

Well, if you are a firm then you care about your company’s revenue. To boost the revenue you unlock new payment methods so that e.g. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Alibaba, Ebay, Allegro, open up their gates to huge market that crypto has become. So in order for their massive corporate firm to be effective about their accepting crypto payments, they have to make sure there’s enough demand on the market first. When does the demand peak on the market? Surprise, it happens around the bull market peaks when every taxi driver, plumber, construction worker (I respect all of the jobs and they are very needed for us to live well) join in on the FOMO traing after hearing their favorite TV media programs journalists and Jims Cramers saying bitcoin will go up to 1M USD next month”. When there’s enough demand on the market, the firms, hedge funds, institutions open their gates to crypto payments allowing millions of people to buy in their product using cryptos. But because the mainstream demand peak happens at the final stage of the bull run (near the end of 5th wave of Elliot). Then finally when all the people join in, everybody dreams of lambos and they can actually finally get it with crypto, the market peaks. That’s the reason why institutions are usually wrong about the markets as they’re forced by the crowds to join in on the FOMO trains. It works for other financial markets too of course. The mechanism is the same. That’s the reason why most of hedge funds under perform average holder.

Knowing of that, buying in 20-30% correction of bitcoin within extreme fear back on the stock simply makes it a good deal for the final leg up. Especially, that bitcoin has been literally following all the recent charts, concepts and scenarios I explained to you in here. As always, if you enjoy this report or want to access way more exclusive content, insane amount of trading experience and knowledge from certified professionals, you may want to rush and lock in your 20% aggregated discount for any 4 month package bought with crypto.

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