Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 20 2021)
The weekly chart has seen local bearish momentum slowdown and reversal which confirms my overall thesis of Septembers tend to make bitcoin perform worse than other months on average. We should not be surprised then that for the past 2 months the weekly chart with the triangle consolidation thesis is being followed well by the market so far.
As mentioned before, it’s likely to see the mean reversion play with momentary dips into 50-week average 37-38k. This may somehow collocate with Evergrande China FUD with centrally-planned RE market in China and overall insolvency out there. If the dip occurs, it could be news-driven sell the news event from the bots.
As long as the weekly momentum & trend per Birbicator on the bottom is in the bearish mode, I’d suggest we remain cautious about rushing into longs all in. Buying the local dips should pay off in next the months while I’d first want to see the monthly close.
For the rest of the chart, the triangle pattern and concept of final leg up in late Q4 with 90-120k ATH targets remain unchanged on my end.
The daily candle is not yet closed of course. It’s so far tapped the two key aVWAP levels marking the upper levels given as the demand zone. In case the daily closes below 42k, then the next support could be 39.3k defined by Volume-based levels.
As mentioned on the recent webinars and reports, the golden cross is in. This is a long-term bullish signal which has long-term implications, NOT short-term. It naturally means, that the overall long-term direction is upwards while the short-term dips are buying opportunity more than selling opportunity.
Strong reaction before at 53k peak which was the low floor of the supply zone 53-58k given in May/June period just adds to the strength of this region and eventually to the strength of technical breakout when it happens.
Since early August, the overall price action has reverted back to the same levels, which closes the entire period in a form a chart pattern. Here it looks a bit like a Head and Shoulders formation with this difference, that it probably would be front-run same way that people expected huge long-term chart pattern to lead bitcoin to negative 5000usd targets, lol.
It’s likely that the FUD breaches the support, but if it does, then high chances it’s a fake breakdown as long as it’s inside the said PTSD period.
Refer back and recall what I said about PTSD range periods: no chart patterns, trendlines, formations are really reliable and supposed to play out textbook way. Instead, it’s more likely they would fake the breakouts and trend in the opposite direction than anticipated because of the pattern.
The middaily chart is showing local price action potentially establishing a fakeout I had warned about for the PTSD period where you would see range lows getting front run with late bears getting trapped. As long as we see daily close above 42.8k or better 43k, the fakeout concept is valid and may behave similarly to the 28.8k dip below 30k range lows from May which ended up getting 80 days of extreme fear ended with 80% increase. The patience pays off.
The aVWAPs 42.2-43.9k demand zone is confirmed and as explained in the past weeks, this has been my definite look-down zone ever from before 53k peaked. Now that we’re here, I’ve added additional ~200k USD to the final run bag for next 3-4 months before the market peaks for bear market to start.
If I get 37-38k dips at 50-week average, I’m planning to throw in additional 300-400k USD for the final leg up for MTF swing up.
The second trendline is broken, but mind that during PTSD range periods, no pattern, trendline, formation is really reliable with the same certainty when compared with trending markets.
50402 is still out there waiting for the retest which eventually should only be the matter of time, UNLESS any unexpected crash, military conflicts escalate, WWIII expands, new virus comes in, or we all die because of planetoid crashing into Earth. Then Im sure bitcoin would not hold so much value anymore.
The PTSD range continues! Short-term tendencies are rather bearish more than bullish, while I see similar pattern to the one I saw at 28.8k floor. Feel free to refer back to the bottom from June. If you remember my recent statements of me expecting another unleash of bearish sentiment with Fear/Greed in extreme fear territory, then I think we’re currently watching at FUD-driven price action which may mark the extreme fear on the scale. This would confirm ultimate buying opportunity based on the sentiment and facts that the crowds are always wrong at the extremes. Regarding the range trading, please recall my recent suggestions on how one can play out the PTSD range.
As any other range trading setup, you may apply one of the three strategies below:
- Inside Range Trading : buy the range lows, sell the range highs
- Outside Range Trading: buy the upside range breakout (or retest), sell the downside range breakdown (or retest)
- Do not trade the range at all
Most of you would probably do best if no range trading at all is applied.
Personally, I think that as long as BTCUSD trades near the floor of the range area, it’s way better buying opportunity than it is for selling.
LTF chart suggests potential local bottomish patterns going on although there’s naturally a risk of being wrong at any time one decides to buy support. All I know for sure, it’s much better to buy the support rather than sell into it. Eventually, the mean reversion will play out as well, leading bitcoin back to 46-46.5k region to retest the local breakdown. So far, the fakeout candle series on the bottom gives me similar vibes to 28.8k bottoming process. One way or another, short-term traders may take the mean reversion swing here with very good risk/reward.
As long as bitcoin trades inside the PTSD range, I don’t recommend applying any leverage due to intensified risks of TA not working the same way reliably vs during trending markets.
Provided that the daily session closes over 43k and no unexpected FUD news appears, there’s high chance to see 46.5k back quite quickly. Failed patterns, breakdowns tend to give much better returns in the opposite directions. That’s why as long as the SFP fakeout on the bottom stays valid, my bet is more for 49-50k retest than 30k.
Worst case scenario in case unpredicted FUD news from China about Evergrade’s lenders prove their combined insolvency, this may bring all global financial markets down and bitcoin would likely see 37-38k levels and another series of selloffs. As you imagine, this would just confirm my triangle scenario given in July and in 1w analysis. If bitcoin confirms to follow my scenarios and plans so carefully and accurately, why would the plan for 90-120k ATH change 🙂 ?
Here’s some interesting note about NUPL. Note that the lows of NUPL are deviated when compared with the actual price action. It seems that NUPL hasn’t breached its main local “support” level while the price action already has. While at 0.5547, the ratio would suggest to me that there’s some onchain bullish defense stepping in behind the scenes from increasing whales’ holdings.
As long as bitcoin remains in the belief stage, I’d always recommend sensible capitalizing on the local upside movements.
For the moment, the index has not updated the readings yet but after the daily close I would expect the index hand to start pointing at deep fear environment between 25-35. The deeper it goes, the better buying opportunity and the wrong’er the crowd is. As simple as that. More insights posted in premium report given to the exclusive members in #nc-video-report channel. If want to unlock the video reports with tonnes of educational content unavailable to the public, use the link below to join with -10% discount for any 4 month membership or -20% discount for any yearly program, AND also 10% off on top of that if choose to pay with crypto. See you inside!