Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 18 2021)
Brief overview of the middaily chart suggests that bitcoin is currently trading over it’s local aVWAP price of 46774 measured from recent 53k top. As long as it does, it’s in short-term upwards trend aiming towards 50402-51000 resistance region as mentioned in my previous reports and webinars. This is likely going to be arbitrary zone to decide whether bitcoin is to follow through to 58-60k supply zone or rather reject towards 37-40k. Both are quite similarly possible at this moment as BTCUSD is trading perfectly in the middle of 28.8-65k range giving technically equal chances to bulls and bears. If we see a daily/weekly close below 46774, then next support area is defined by aVWAPs 42.2-43.9k which eventually are also easily on the table imo. It’s also safe to include the second solid trendline due to the fact that the local lows of 42.8k are safely and well established serving as a technical market support. Now there’s hence additional dynamic support along the trendline as it moves up as the market will naturally compare their positions and decisions using the trendline as a chart pattern and reference point.
I’ll keep updating the 4h chart analysis with quote on my PTSD range concept posted on the 20% drop day for your better understanding and clear reference:
“PTSD range continues. We’re slowly rebuilding the market liquidity and mindset after suffering significant losses on the dump day and massive liquidations. While transitioning slowly and gradually from phase I to phase II, one must remember to keep their bids below the two aVWAP resistances shown in the chart within 46-46.5k zone.
Let me remind everybody what the specific phases meant:
First phase typically is about very intense and broad volatility with very high risk. It’s NOT suggested for scalpers or short-term traders to traded intraday swings because the market is highly unstable and lacking the trend. For that, you should expect irrational, not “technical” movements where no patterns, movements are really predictable and come true as you could expect them to do based on regular TA readings. After the market and people have realized what has just happened – some people woke up to liquidated accounts which is always about denial – the PTSD phase II starts.
Phase II of PTSD range is imo about market recovering and reverting back to its means. Clearly, 47.6 and 49.1k can be used for reference as resistances backed by volume of the selloff. In case these ones are breached with decent close of 4h or higher candle over that resistance, the next is the said pre-breaker setup for 50402-51000 retest which marks the fakeout zone above as distribution place.
Phase III is when the market slowly recovers its “technical” features and TA applies better back again. That’s when you could trade BTCUSD more safely.
Until then, PTSD stands for range Post Traumatic Stress Disorder period as I refer to it. As any other range, it only trades outside the boundaries, not inside where its lacking the direction by definition.
As any other range trading setup, you may apply one of the three strategies below:
- Inside Range Trading : buy the range lows, sell the range highs
- Outside Range Trading: buy the upside range breakout (or retest), sell the downside range breakdown (or retest)
- Do not trade the range at all
Most of you would probably do best if no range trading at all is applied.”
Phase II of PTSD continues as bitcoin is still trending up and making new highs. There’s quite a decent bull flag pattern of somewhat reliable reference imo. It’s coming after massive upswing recovery from 42.8k which sets the pattern well, while one needs to remember it’s still inside the PTSD zone. I’d explained a few times and also above that no pattern, trendline, candle formation can really be owned with 100% certainty as long as we trade inside the range. I suggest you have limited trust towards it then.
For the pattern alone, bitcoin is currently retesting the breakout which around 47500s potentially provides good risk/reward for short-term longs into 50400-51000 supply. In case of a confirmed fakeout with daily close below 47500, the volume-based demand layer is at 46.4-46.7k territory which would serve as next support and drop target. Then if that one breaks, 42-43.9k levels given in 12h analysis are next. It works like a conditional stairway – one step is broken, price drops to the lower one, etc.
Aiming the breakout target zone 50400-51000 is technically correct, although remember that it’s PTSD range and intensified distribution/selling may occur before price reaches the very levels. It’s worth staying cautious and safe rather than sorry, so remember to book your profits – the more, the higher BTCUSD goes.
The onchain ratio is set at 0.554 so not much has changed since the latest onchain update.
Still onchain suggests that one should slowly but surely realize their profits as long as bitcoin remains inside the belief stage. It should not be aggressive quit but rather mindful profit lock-in.
For aggressive market quit I’m waiting to see NUPL well over 0.75 which would appear in tandem with new ATHs around 70-100k usd imo.
Clearly, the market is waiting on the sidelines. Historically, bitcoin rarely ever sees intense trading during weekends so it doesnt come as surprise to see little interest, volume and price volatility as long as the weekend lasts. Usually, the traders get more aggressive and market gets more volatile into the weekly close where usually few hours before the weekly candle is set and done, some more volatile moves appear. Until that happens, I dont expect much to change for the sentiment defined by Fear/Greed index. Now, it’s just another day in range with crowd being neutral waiting in sideways for the market to make a move. Eventually, the crowd is always right in the middle of trend but always wrong at the extremes. Based on sentiment it’s too early to short and too late to long. Risk/reward confirms it, so no additional positions are here suggested to be opened.
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