Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 15 2021)
The middaily charts are showing quite a clear directional breakout which will be confirmed provided that the daily closes over 47.8k. If that’s the case then per my previous reports and webinars of last weeks, BTCUSD would be due to pull back to 50402-51000 region or even higher.
We have just seen significant short-term buy confirmation from bitcoin as it’s closed subsequent two middaily sessions over its aVWAP level resistance of 46517. It’s likely that at one point bitcoin would be bound to retest the breakout level and the said aVWAP while being supported from the underneath by two significant averages at 42152 and 43764. As long as these levels are defended by bulls, the narrative is for bitcoin to reach the upper ultimate pre-breaker level at 59580 which once broken and reclaimed on a weekly basis may bring new ATH on the table.
Bollinger Bands analysis suggests that the upper volatility-based resistance is around 51000 which gives additional confirmation to the technical significance of 51000 level.
In case of a daily SFP/fakeout/bull trap and candle close below 46517 bitcoin will see increased chances of throwback around mid 43000s.
Let me quote back again my recent 4h chart description so you can easily track it and see the progress as the chart prints new candles:
“PTSD range continues. We’re slowly rebuilding the market liquidity and mindset after suffering significant losses on the dump day and massive liquidations. While transitioning slowly and gradually from phase I to phase II, one must remember to keep their bids below the two aVWAP resistances shown in the chart within 46-46.5k zone.
Let me remind everybody what the specific phases meant:
First phase typically is about very intense and broad volatility with very high risk. It’s NOT suggested for scalpers or short-term traders to traded intraday swings because the market is highly unstable and lacking the trend. For that, you should expect irrational, not “technical” movements where no patterns, movements are really predictable and come true as you could expect them to do based on regular TA readings. After the market and people have realized what has just happened – some people woke up to liquidated accounts which is always about denial – the PTSD phase II starts.
Phase II of PTSD range is imo about market recovering and reverting back to its means. Clearly, 47.6 and 49.1k can be used for reference as resistances backed by volume of the selloff. In case these ones are breached with decent close of 4h or higher candle over that resistance, the next is the said pre-breaker setup for 50402-51000 retest which marks the fakeout zone above as distribution place.
Phase III is when the market slowly recovers its “technical” features and TA applies better back again. That’s when you could trade BTCUSD more safely.
Until then, PTSD stands for range Post Traumatic Stress Disorder period as I refer to it. As any other range, it only trades outside the boundaries, not inside where its lacking the direction by definition.
As any other range trading setup, you may apply one of the three strategies below:
- Inside Range Trading : buy the range lows, sell the range highs
- Outside Range Trading: buy the upside range breakout (or retest), sell the downside range breakdown (or retest)
- Do not trade the range at all
Most of you would probably do best if no range trading at all is applied.”
Clearly, 4h chart shows bitcoin to have started moving directionally in an upward trend due to the recent breakout above at previous highs at 47.4k. For this reason, 49.1k is on the table as the range highs area while please combine It with my middaily chart analysis. All together combined suggests that 49.1k-51k is a heavy resistance-loaded region where potential distribution may occur. I would personally not long into this area due to poor risk/reward setup for a long trade. I would not dare to short it either as you would counter trade the trend while the crowd is pressing and not exhausted yet. Don’t fight the trend or fade it if you care to increase your win rate.
Local supports defined by a VWAPs anchored at 53k peak and recent 42.8k trough provide bitcoin with average support layer at 46-46.4k area where you could expect bitcoin to throw back and load the local dips.
Eventually, as long as BTC trades inside 42.8k-53k range, it’s not bearish or bullish on larger scope. It’s just neutral hence approach chart patterns, trendlines, breakout trades with double caution and pinch of salt. Technicals of the market in sideways, especially if its PTSD period, apply in a limited manner.
Net unrealized profit currently points at ~0.555 ratio which still places bitcoin inside the belief or slight greed mode from the onchain and sentiment point of view.
The market slowly builds up the profit unrealized which is suggested from the increasing NUPL ratio. This tells me about local increase in certainty from the crowds about the market going up.
The higher up the scale we go, the more profits should be realized. Gradually but surely.
Still, my personal target for aggressive withdrawal and transition into other markets is dated for late Q4 where Id expect NUPL to be heavily over 0.75 which historically has always brought market reversals or bear markets after some time of bitcoin being in that zone.
I’d expect this pattern to repeat in certain way.
The crowd apparently has shifted to the neutral stage where bears lost their bearish hopes and bulls are gaining on strength and power.
Currently at 49 points it confirms it’s not necessarily the best risk/reward ratio for takign up a new short-term trade as it’s too late for longs and too early for shorts.
Yesterday when the index was pointing down at 30 points, the crowds anticipated 43k breakdown as bitcoin was making noise movements following up on the fake LTC – Walmart partnership. This added uncertainty to the market.
The golden rule that’s become my motto for you reminds: The crowds are always right in the middle of trend but always wrong at the extremes.
Now when the market is in the middle of neutral sentiment, you don’t want to fight the trend. Meanwhile, if haven’t used the chance yet to prolong your memberships at -10% discount for any 4 month program, or -20% discount for any yearly package, then use it to extend, prolong, renew or upgrade your membership effectively now.