Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 10 2022)
The middaily chart reveals an instance of an upwards breakout for BTC.
A break over a horizontal resistance, as well as the CTF Trailer break have both occurred.
As a result, there might be – at least – a short-term switch of the trend, in favor of the bulls.
However, I recommend you do not take any up thrust for granted – BTC is still moving sideways in the medium-term direction, and downwards in the primary trend of the bear market.
For this reason, the bulls are vulnerable much more than not.
The CTF Trailer Stop is now at 19562 USD. As long as the bulls manage to maintain BTC to close sessions over the level, they are in charge.
Still, because the sideways pattern prevails on a higher time frame, there is a higher chance of breakout failure, eventually.
The MTF chart gives a more detailed look inside the breakout to the upside for BTC.
Overall, it seems that the break is confirmed by the abnormal volatility factor – BTC closed outside the High BPRO Band, piercing over the regular volatility frames. This gives validation to the short-term price action moving upwards.
Additionally, there have been several follow-through bars, adding significance to the break.
However, first local signs of distribution and trend exhaustion can be seen on top of the tail with shaven-top bars or long upper candle shadows. They appear because of underlying distribution processes and breakout failures on lower time frames. It may suggest a short-term throwback into the 20800-21000 USD area.
The BPRO Bands unveil new volatility range to be at 18300-22000 USD. It implies that regardless where BTC trades within the frames, it will still be in the healthy volatility zone – at least, accounting for volatility.
The hourly chart displays an example of a local distribution, as the hourly bars promote overthrows on top of the tail.
It stems from the fact that the upwards tail is facing opposing forces as it gets closer to the price barrier, where the ask orders aggregate to sell or to sell short.
While it does not need to promise a perfect twist and immediate reversal, it rather informs about the upwards tail slowing down on the momentum – enough to switch the direction to more of the sideways.
This boosts the odds of a potential reversal following the +10% rally on BTC.
Rarely ever, assets’ prices move in a straight line for a long time.
A bit of improvement on the sentiment side has emerged, as BTC prices leveled up.
After the 10% thrust, slightly more investors are feeling bullish than a few days ago.
However, this is still the “fear” environment.
The more aggressive the fear, and the more hopelessness around – the better the buying opportunity often becomes.
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Hope it helps.
P.S. Check new thread – hot off the oven!