Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (September 1 2021)

HTF 1M:

The monthly candle closed right at the resistance with tiny rejection over it. It is somewhat bullish candle but I would personally read it more as bulls NOT being at their final form yet. This confirms my thesis that the current upside pullback off sub 30k lows is rather not the ultimate push which will smash ATH 65k right away with one shot. Analyzing the candlestick alone, I’d say it’s a spinning top candle with body focused around the center. It’s more bullish than bearish but it’s just not yet THE candle. THE breakout candle imo is to appear in Q4 to give us new market highs into 90-120k regions with following months. 

Support & Resistance analysis suggests that the main support to refer to is August’s low at 37.3k and because the bulls are not at their final strike yet and the fact that seasonality effect suggests that September is the only month which in past years has been negative on average – it all makes me think that there’s a chance to revisit high 30000s territory if the August’s monthly open at 41.5k is lost. Resistance is shown to be at 58.8k and it’s quite clearly suggested by the market. Im still expecting 53-58k daily volume block to be retested in September or October but with narrow range August, Id expect more volatility and hence the chances we visit both in September: high 30000s and mid 50000s.

Volume-based trend supports bitcoin at 20748 which is the main fair price of bitcoin this bull market since 2018 so far. In case another unpredicted black swan crash, world conflicts escalations, new virus, etc then flash crashes into this region are something you should be ready at any time, any day as bitcoin investors.

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart is really tricky to my mind. The bulls have lost their main MTF trendline for sustainable upside recovery and now BTCUSD is trading below the trendline. This means that the short-term trend is downside-deviated against its MTF trend after the 30-43k range breakout. For this reason, while being overall bull, TA suggests to me that the retracement is due unless bullish news comes in unexpectedly. As long as BTCUSD trades below the trendline, the trend is wobbly, shaky, unsustainable and at any time may pull the correction card. Note that unsustainable does not negate the chances of going higher, that’s not what it means.

The bullish aVWAPs crossover marked with the orange circle is a bullish MTF signal confirming that the recent 29.2-50.5k leg up is stronger than the previous long-term bearish trend that started at ATH. For this reason, if we get the said retracement into 41.7-42.5k region, It’s a buying opportunity. Because the trend is up, it’s more suggested to focus on buying the lows rather than selling the highs. Follow the trend. Trend is your friend.

Local volume based resistance anchored at 50.5k highs is at 48168 and as soon as BTCUSD closes week over that level, I’d expect 53-58k to be the next target. 

Note that for all target levels mentioned above there are conditions that have to be met as explained above. No meeting conditions means no confirmation.

MTF 4H:

MTF chart hasn’t changed much as the previously given regions are still relevant. Recent days have proven the demand zone 46.6-47.1k validity as well as supply zone at 49-49.7k. As long as BTCUSD trades between those boundaries, it’s ranging and NOT moving in a trend. Range in its own bullishness or bearishness is always neutral. What defines the further trend outside the range is the breakout direction. Upside breakout with weekly close over 49.7k leads to 53-58k test eventually. Downside breakout boosts the chances of visiting the middaily aVWAP supports 41.7-42.5k with the middle stop at MA200 4h at 45.4k.

Short term trend on average is slightly declining per MA50 and unless unpredicted bullish FOMO news kicks in out of nowhere, bitcoin is likely to retest 45.4k soon.

Note how the moving average works as a dynamic support/resistance in trending markets. MA200 has moved up from 44.4k to 45.5k over the past few days which additionally proves that the market is losing its upside steam.

Id expect an explosive move outside the said range boundaries anytime soon. I have no idea where it comes from: FED, Elon Musk, tech giants, major banks, Afghanistan or whether it is planned to be bearish or bullish. One way or another, until the news comes out, bitcoin is technically said to continue bleeding slowly towards MA200.

If sudden 2-5k upside candle comes, it rather will not be coming from the technical side of the market but external forces: insider trading, news, etc.

NUPL

Not much has changed since my Saturday’s report. NUPL has declined to 0.5618 which is not any game-changer. Rather tells me that while still the sentiment is bullish, the market is tiny tiny bit less over extended than it was on Saturday while the price remains relatively the same. No signs of bearish reversal or divergence so far so the market is rather not due to any unexpected crash (crash is not the same as retracement).

As it’s still in the green territory, the chart suggests it’s in the casual profit taking territory. So it’s worth to lock in some profits as unrealized profit is no profit.

FEAR/GREED INDEX

As the diagrams suggest, the crowds sentiment has slightly declined to 71 points on the scale. It’s still noted as greed territory whereas the crowds are slowly losing the belief/engagement/excitement about the market moving up. 

It hence shows it’s still good idea to take some profits off the table just for the sake of protecting your capital.

Based on the sentiment, the good buying opportunity comes as soon as we get to see fear or extreme fear below 30 points on the scale. This would mean there’s enough disbelief to set the market up for potential short squeeze into 53-58k territory. Keep your eyes and head up while protecting your profits.

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