Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (October 6 2021)
The weekly session is mid way through so its too early for any local conclusions. For your information, the way I read today’s BTC breakout is that if it closes the day over 52k and weekly candle closes through 52k, this validates and confirms long-term breakout over the diagonal trendline. It’s a similar signal to one that we saw at 10k. It’s probably the last confirmation for the upcoming ATH and $100k+ levels coming in Q4.
Provided that no unexpected black swans, pandemics, military conflicts emerge, Im expecting this very signal to take us beyond 100k+ in November with 120k-150k peak in December 2021. Those are just my forecasts but I hope it unveils how seriously I take this breakout.
The daily chart has already confirmed the breakout yesterday with the daily close over the trendline signaling that the bearish effect of the entire 65-28.8k has just been neutralized.
The next levels to pay attention to 58-60k, then 65k, 70k, 80k, 90k, 100k.
50-week average stands still at 39.4k.
Volume-based support clusters defined by aVWAP trendlines are: 42.2-44.1k; 45.5-45.8k
It’s important for daily sessions to keep closing over 52.8k to avoid fakeouts.
Long story short: bitcoin has clear sky to pump 🙂
MTF chart has just seen proper break out of the range through the supply zone. The breakout is confirmed with a strong 4h thrust closed through the resistance layer signaling trend continuation. The range pattern base size is 53-39.6k equals 13.4k is 53k+13.4k equals ~66k. In other words, the chart pattern breakout is confirming the breakout target to be over the new ATH region.
Notice how the bitcoin’s chart followed the orange path given at 46000s. The conditions for the retracement to 45k were NOT met due to BTCUSD not closing any candle below 46.8k which was essential for 45k to happen.
For those reading my reports, it’s potential strategy to trade the breakout retest (52-53k) for short-term trades towards new ATH regions. It’s obviously riskier than buying into 30k and 40k just the way I made official calls for premium members to enter. Riskier doesn’t mean profitable though.
Volume profile suggests volume shelves and support zones to be at 51-51.8k, 47.4-48.2k, 44.8k (in case of a fakeout and weekly close back inside the range due to unexpected FOMO news)
Next targets seem to be placed at 58-60k.
The ratio at 0.586 is within belief and considered good opportunity to take profits the more, the higher the NUPL ratio goes.
Note a form of a bullish divergence (although not literal) where NUPL hasnt breached through its September 6th highs of 0.6 while the price action is well beyond its levels from that time.
It tells me that the market pulled higher prices already while the onchain is still more undervalued than it was in September.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h MA)
Note the effect of the hidden bullish divergence I warned about on Monday. It’s now come to an effect I was meaning 🙂
One more time the crowds were proven to be wrong at the extremes where within extreme fear the herds expected bear market or 10k – LOL. It’s a pity people rarely ever listen. If they had listened, they would have saved tons of money on today’s short liquidations. Now the market is bullish per sentiment as the liquidated herds of unexperienced traders got smashed, liquidated and blew up their accounts. With the index pointing at 68 it’s marked as greed, although its not extreme.
If you remember reading through my Monday’s report, I was explaining how one should not trade against the crowds in the middle of trends – that was part of the trend, not the extreme. Thesis was proved right once again. The summary is that in past 3-4 months, premium members got exclusive calls and official statements in my personal trading journals of me loading sum of $800k USD into 29.6k and 40k lows. Members are flashing theri profit and loss accounts in heavy profits. Pride is one thing and should be limited not to take it into complacency, but being profitable where 90% on average got tricked is something worth fighting for. If you missed out all those calls and want to make sure you dont miss my top exit signals, join our premium members and save up to 20% on any 4 month program or 30% for any yearly program if paid with crypto. Like I said at 40k lows, the discounts do never last forever. See you inside.