Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (October 3 2022)

HTF 1W:

The weekly chart has added yet another sideways bar at low volatility and in the form of the spinning top.

The 200-week average is now 23556 USD, whereas the 50-week mean is 35553 USD. That said, BTC closed again below the 200-week average.

At 0.52, the 7-week correlation coefficient remains relatively strong and positive. It implies that more likely than not, BTC will follow the lead of the stock market, whichever direction stocks trade-in.

MTF 12H:

The middaily chart continues to chop around the 19000 USD level, contributing more and more bars to the pattern.

The CTF Trailer has remained on a bearish note ever since the 13th of September. For now, the primary resistance is CTF Stop at 20354 USD.

As long as the bulls do not manage to push and establish trading above the 20354 USD level, the bears are in control and have the upper vote in the market. It means, it’s possible for BTC to continue to move lower – even below the June lows.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart continues to portray a neutral picture of how BTC moves.

Over the last several weeks, Bitcoin prices have continued to chop around horizontally, without any concrete direction to favor.

Such an environment confirms that BTC is in no man’s land, which is unfavorable for trend followers. Instead, it promotes mean reverters and noise traders, who benefit from limited volatility and play the trading range from inside the pattern.

Otherwise, a more significant breakout may come as soon as BTC closes a day outside the BPRO Bands, 20100 USD or 18400 USD.

Furthermore, the BPRO Level Lines show resistance levels at:

23167
19702

At the same time, the Level Lines display support level at 18576

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

At 24 points on the scale, BTC prints yet another day of extreme fear in the market.

The traders seem to fear about the prices dropping more. While it is not set in stone, BTC in fact may have more room for declines accounting for the global recession and stock market bearish series.

More often than not, the more of the fear is induced inside the market, the better the contrarian trading opportunity.

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Meanwhile, the NUPL ratio is now at -0.115. This puts the investors in the unrealized loss, on average.

Historically, the cycle troughs have come during the periods when BTC was printing the negative NUPL ratio values.

While it is not a timing indicator, it may well represent that state of the oversold market conditions.

Hope it helps. God bless

P.S. Beware – increased volatility on the dates presented in the cheat sheet attached.