Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (October 29 2022)
The middaily chart presents the BTC case spending substantial time outside the prior breakout threshold, which adds credibility to the current technical outlook leaning more bullish. However, the volatility spark would need some more fuel soon. A sharp volatility (ATR) increase is beneficial to add conviction for the direction of the move. Currently, BTC has already experienced a mean reversion to the 50-period ATR average. It can be considered a valid medium-term breakout, as long as it sustains ATR over the 50-period means, confirming there is an actual spark and willingness to persist higher. On the BPRO side, the CTF Trailer breakout remains valid. The main support threshold is 19827 USD. As long as it is held, the bullish terms should be maintained with further upside targets.
The medium term outlook is pointing an advance to 21000 USD, with local rejections on top, so far. It suggests that the 21000 USD resistance is filled with supply cluster. Only after it’s consumed, the bulls can resume the upwards trajectory, in the short term view. The BPRO Momentum Bands point out that the more conservative target for the breakout has been met at 21000 USD. If BTC is willing to take it further to the extremes of the volatility range, it can reach 21500 USD. However, the further upside conviction is gained only after the latter breakout - over 21500 USD with a daily close through.
The fear sentiment is maintained. However, at 34 points on the sentiment scale there has been a substantial improvement, adding a bit more validity to the current breakouts. Should the price continue to rise, the expected traders’ behavior would likely lean to the FOMO effect, as the herds start feeling regret attitude. It could potentially further ignite the rally, and add more fuel to the fire. The trend is weak, but it’s not recommended to counter trade it. Hope it helps. God bless.