Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (October 25 2021)
The weekly session closed with a candle in the form of a high-wave doji showing somewhat indecision. More importantly though, it is unquestionable that the long-term bullish triangle pattern has been confirmed with a massive upside breakout, just like expected in June. The previous zone of weakness of bulls over 58k in April-May has now been reclaimed by bulls with a stronge weekly close through this area. This shows that the market is way stronger at the same ATH levels than it was in April-May.
BTCUSD also has printed new ATH at 67k and it’s likely just the beginning of the final leg up rally to last for the next weeks to come.
Beautiful support from 50-week average shows bitcoin’s strength and confirmation for my entire thesis which Ive been sharing with you here publicly for past 4 months or more.
The moment we see a strong weekly/monthly close over 67k BTCUSD will activate the symmetrical triangle breakout target at 90k USD, which somehow is also incorporated inside the Fibonacci based extensions 89364, 127053. In this region I’d expect high chances for the market top to come UNDER THE CONDITION that the market shows enough weakness there. Shorting / fading this final leg up is a suicide. It will be unquestionable reign of bulls for the next few weeks with bitcoin easily pulling off 100k USD levels imo. If we don’t see enough weakness in 90-130k region, this may take bitcoin even further up to 150-200k. Where we’re going usually surpasses everybody’s expectations. This comes from the madness of crowds effect where the volatility (and risk) is the largest.
Bitcoin tends to go higher than what anybody expects during bull markets and lower than anybody predicts during bear markets.
The daily chart has just seen a ~11% retracement down to 20-day average value of BTCUSD showing first actual mean reversion ever since 44k breakout. It’s a positive sign and accounting that MA20 is ascending very aggressively, the momentum of the uptrend on the old-ATH break is very strong. For that reason I’d expect more continuation rather than any long-lasting correction.
We’d already seen a daily confirmation of new ATH on October 20th with daily close over 65.9k showing the bulls were feeling strong in this region. For that reason I personally consider the entire 67k->59.6k as a consolidation range pattern – e.g. pennant or a small triangle followed by a decent breakout through 70,000 USD as the next local target.
That said, when bitcoin bursts through 70k milestone, the momentum is going to increase insanely additionally causing snowball effect – the stronger it gets, the more people & institutions will FOMO in expecting higher returns and trend continuation. This “self-fulfilling prophecy” effect will eventually cause the prices to go up even higher and faster. For that reason, the higher it goes, the less time it’s going to take to teleport from 70k to 80k, then from 80k to 90k, etc.
Every round number milestone like 70,000 or 80,000 and 100,000 will most likely cause a local shock and violent, aggressive short-lived dump 15-20%.
YOU BETTER GET USED TO THIS TYPE OF VOLATILITY, where BTCUSD moves up 20k a day then immediately sells off 15-20k candles on the next day. Remember me saying 50k usd candle drops in a single day on the reversal peak are coming? Well, we’re getting close to this soon.
Bollinger Bands show off strong upside trending volatility trends with market having 95% of chances to trade between 52k and 66.5k in the next days. The moment BTCUSD sees a strong monthly/weekly/daily candle close through 66.5k, the volatility breakout will get confirmed officially taking us beyond 70k fast and easy.
Unless unexpected FUD news comes in, Im not expecting bitcoin to throw back to 52k during this final wave of the bull run.
The middaily session’s just closed with a promising bullish engulfing candle. As long as the market is trading inside 59.6-67k zone, bitcoin is NOT trending but going sideways instead. The base size of this consolidation pattern will be 7.4k usd and for that reason an upside breakout with daily close through 67k technically takes us as high as 74.4k usd.
Remember me talking about the importance of the bullish crossover printed by two marked orange aVWAP trendlines? Well, that’s exactly what I meant on August 23rd for how significant I was expecting it to become. It eventually brought new ATH. Currently its showing strong supports at 43590, 46958 which for now Id not expect to be much of use unless global market crisis case comes in unexpectedly.
MTF picture is clearly showing very strong uptrend from low 40000s all the way up to 67k ATH. MA200 is growing sharply and now provides LTF-MTF support for bitcoin at ~53000 USD in case things go south due to a minor black swan / very bearish news (highly not expected). This moving average is showing smoothened trend of bitcoin. It’s clear for which direction it’s going – upwards.
The volume profile analysis of the period accounting 40k lows and ATH suggests that fair price of bitcoin gauged by volume is at 55000USD. This region aligns well with MA200 and price action of bitcoin as BTCUSD made its previous high swing at 53k. Triple reason for bitcoin to support very strongly in this area provided that FUD news kicks in. Other than this, Im not expecting bitcoin to go down this low before the bear market comes.
Local retracement’s volume profile suggests 63.3k to be the main resistance and once daily close over 63.3k occurs, bitcoin should have it easier to break through new ATH again straight to 70k.
Hourly chart is trading inside the range 58.7k (or 59.6k) up to 67k. Sideways in a strong upwards trend is a pattern of continuation of the prior trend direction – upwards. The momentum will likely push bitcoin out of the range with an upside breakout to the said target of 70k and 74000s.
High volatility and little to no pullbacks are to be expected on every breakout the higher we go up the price scale.
Volume profile analysis of inside range area proves that 62.9k-63.7k is one supply area, while the final one is at 64.8k and 66.5k. Expect these levels to be subsequently coming one after another fast on the stairway up.
As long as bitcoin trades inside the range, everything is possible including throwback to range lows 58.7-59.6k or rejection / fakeout over the range highs 66-67k.
BTCUSD is also trending back above its MA200 which is a positive sign.
This is the last phase of the bull market that’s lasted for the past 3 years. The volatility will soon become unbearable for vast majority of the traders out there bringing insane amounts of risk and chances of liquidating accounts.
Do NOT even think of approaching shorts for next 1-2 months imo unless you like to serve as a liquidity provider for the institutions FOMOing in with their multiple billions of dollars buying bitcoin. Only spot trading with and not against the trend.
The long term perspective for NUPL onchain indicator shows that historically anytime that bitcoin went over 0.75 ratio soon ended the bull market in most cases. Im not expecting this bull run to be of exception.
As can be seen in both diagrams attached, in the past few weeks NUPL has been upsloping very sharply and aggressively and going from 0.35 on July 20th to 0.63-0.65 already with the recent ATH push.
Now there’s an extremely powerful point to make for NUPL as well. Pay attention closely.
Notice how price action has already breached the old ATH resulting in new ATH at 67k (and counting). At the same time, NUPL is not even close to its peak value at 0.745 from April’s 65k ATH levels. This tells me that THE MARKET IS WAY STRONGER AND READY TO FLY PAST NEW ATH THAN EVER BEFORE. Despite pulling new ATH on price, NUPL has huge way ahead only to catch up with its high of April.
Hence this should be interpreted, that bitcoin at current new ATH is not even tiny bit exhausted showing insane strength on the onchain side and its readiness to go extremely high in price in the upcoming weeks-months.
This is “bullish divergence” in a way. New ATH while onchain is undervalued vs April’s value will likely send BTCUSD to 100k USD in upcoming weeks.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h MA)
As glassnode explains, it’s the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.
Another evidence behind the market being actually undervalued HEAVILY against its onchain conditions during the topping process in April-May period while the price has already breached through new ATH. Massive growth potential JUST TO CATCH UP with the old ATH onchain conditions, not to even mention it can easily fly past this state and it probably will.
The onchain is very bullish the way I read it. Price’s made ATH and onchain barely has even moved yet…
Fear & Greed Index
This is probably a point where majority will get it wrong and try to fade the breakouts on wrong market reading. Sentiment per the index shows BTCUSD to be at 72 points on the scale which is classified as GREED. Exactly a month ago when the market was flashing extreme fear I sent out FINAL ULTIMATE BITCOIN BUY SIGNAL for this bull market at 40000USD. It’s proven nothing but true, real, evident and correct. I always put money where my mouth is and while majority was shouting 5k, 15k, 20k, 30k targets I loaded approx 1M usd in btc, eth, ltc longs including small leveraged positions. Everybody who joined me on the call is already celebrating well 🙂 Huge success aside, now it’s the time that majority will try to search for any single bearish point to validate their bearish feelings coming from the salt that they not only missed out on last buying opportunity, but also likely tried to short the breakout again and again and again. Now they’re more desperate to find ANY and I repeat ANY signs of bearishness to justify their shorts. You will see people and fake gurus telling you that the bull market has peaked because fear/greed index is in extreme greed. They couldnt be further from the truth. The majority is always right in the middle of trend, but always wrong at the extremes. And here’s where the first part of this thesis activates. It’s no signs of exhaustion. Onchain is hugely undervalued and BTC is already printing new ATH. THE MARKET IS INSANELY strong and launching the rocket for the final leg up of this bull run, the 5th Elliot Wave which will eventually send bitcoin past $100k imo. The rule is simple: If you missed out on buying, you dont want to miss out on selling the top to compensate for your pains. Perception biases in your head activate and you start seeing tops everywhere and keep pressing the red button on and on. Every single time you will get liquidated on every short. That’s literally the worst moment of the entire past 3 years of bitcoin’s history to be in the shorts. Shorts and bears will get destructed, annihilated, destroyed sooner than they manage to close out their shorts out of fear. The biggest, most volatile growth, pumps and rallies are coming in next days and weeks. Everybody trying to short while the most powerful institutions are flowing in to purchase billions of dollars worth of BTC, is simply going to serve as liquidity providers. I cant emphasize how much I dont recommend shorting, not to mention leverage shorting. It’s literally throwing away money and you better quit now and donate this money to a charity immediately. I promise. If I were to depict that somehow, it would be like the typical average salty bear out of luck (who previously missed on buying opportunity and realized they were wrong badly), being say 3-year old kid with a wooden stick trying to fight the largest military army of the world, navies, Hulk and Godzilla – all in one marching at you.
Extreme greed will hold for weeks if not for months, same way that extreme fear held for 80+ days June-August. The upside pumps and volatility will surprise even the biggest veterans of this market. Every media TV news station, newspaper will be talking about bitcoin. The biggest amount of money out of this entire 3-year long bull run is TO BE MADE IN THE NEXT WEEKS. You have literally waited for this dream-come-true moment for past 3 years. Don’t waste this one in a lifetime opportunity on trying to short every breakout which will eventually leave you homeless while missing out the largest opportunity ever. At the same time, whenever NUPL crosses 0.75 I’ll proceed with BULL MARKET EXIT PROCESS and realizing profits for other undervalued assets: gold, SILVER, real estate. Same way that people called me idiot for buying at 29.6k and 40k, they will call me idiot for selling bitcoin when it goes past 0.75.
Write it down, screenshot it, print it, hang it on you wall as you wish. I know I am right here and only unexpected military global conflicts, WWIII, financial system premature collapse can change that imo. More details in exclusive video report Im preparing for the premium subscribers. Same ways I’d called major tops and bottoms before, I’ll call the final bitcoin top of this bull run. You’ll have multiple warnings from me as exclusive members. If not part of The Nest yet and want to make sure you dont miss out on the top, feel free to join premium seats on discounts while they last. Follow the link below.