Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (October 1 2022)
HTF 1M:
The September session closed at 19425 USD, and compared with the best monthly support level at 19925 USD; it lines up as a bearish close.
So far, any Bitcoin decline into the 17-18k USD area in the past months has brought a bounce back above the 19000 USD level.
As a result, BTC seems to have built a thin layer of support in the 17.5-19.4k USD. However, it may happen that BTC marks new lows anytime soon.
MTF 12H:
The middaily chart has not brought any massive change to the overall outlook of the BTC sideways movement.
Instead, there has been less than a 5% decline in price over the last 30 days, while BTC continued to move within a narrow-range pattern of 18200-19700 USD, with several overthrows on top.
The CTF Trailer has remained on the bearish note since breaking down the 20500 USD level. For now, the primary resistance is 20354 USD. As long as there is no upwards break above that level, BTC remains in the consolidation period, leaning more toward the bearish side of the pattern.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart continues to present a choppy price action, as BTC moves back and forth between the frames of 18500 USD support and 20500 USD resistance.
The BPRO Momentum Bands reflect the very nature of the sideways movement – a flat price direction and lack of follow-through to either side.
As BTC continues to trade within the said frames, the market will promote traders’ indecision – until a valid breakout occurs.
A daily close outside the Band is needed to validate the break.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
At 20 points on the index scale, the extreme fear seems to be getting even more intense.
Historically, the lower the index value, the better the contrarian trade opportunity.
That being said, it is not a timing indicator like an RSI, or Stoch. It does not aim at forecasting the bottom reversal. However, it often happens that when the market trough comes up, the selling (and fear) climax emerges, too.
With the historical troughs at 80-90% drawdowns off the cycle peaks, BTC has reached tha maximum drawdown of 75%, so far. It leaves more room for declines, in theory.
It’s worth to be ready, in case the selling climax appears to liquidate investors.
Hope it helps.
God bless.
P.S. More insights shared in my yesterday’s webinar. Catch it below.
