Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 6 2021)

By Cryptobirb

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart is showing that the price has just been hoovering right over it’s lower Bollinger Band acting as a support beneath. Because of that, the average volatility suggests that regular price action assumes BTCUSD should not be trading below the support of 59.7k for 95% of the time. And whenever it drops off the band it would be considered abnormal volatility aka volatility breakout provided that bitcoin closes a day/week below 59.7k.

Chart pattern analysis suggests a symmetrical triangle or bullish pennant chart pattern and out of these two Im more in for the latter. The reason behind it is that symmetrical triangle usually happens “randomly” without any necessary condition/context prior to the pattern. On the contrary, the bullish pennant/flag as half mast formations require prior sharp thrust or leg up/down – or a mast if you will. Pennant works out as a continuation pattern mainly because it’s just a short, temporary interruption of the fast-pacing and high-momentum trend. In this case, the entire leg up from 42k to 67k is way more “vertical” than a regular healthy trend coming with 45 degree angle for its slope. Here it’s more of 60-70 degrees and could be considered a rapid move up. This leads me to the conclusion that it should work as a mast for the pennant/flag chart pattern, which usually happens in the middle of a trend. Hence the target is the mast size (25k) added on top of the potential breakout level (63.3k – upper Bollinger Band + diagonal down trendline). Pennant breakout target confirmed with a daily close through 63.3k comes at 85-90k region.

In case of an unpredicted FUD news event, there might be an orchestrated dump into low-mid 50000s. Technical analysis suggests upwards continuation as more probable scenario and that’s what Im sticking to.

MTF 4H:

MTF chart continues to show the typical consolidation occurring between the extreme boundaries: extreme low of 58.5k and extreme high of 67k. Whenever the chart includes a lot of noise and manipulation wicks e.g. the one of FED’s interest rate announcements, then it’s worth switching to Line chart to show analyze the price essence. And the levels mentioned above correspond with the actual price essence. Because of that, whatever happens inside the range between the boundaries, it’s not bullish or bearish per se – its neutral. The context of the pattern is what defines its likely direction of a breakout. In this case, consolidation after a sharp move up is considered continuation pattern.

MA200 beneath the price action of bitcoin shows the support at 59.5k which along with 58.5k range floor construct a demand zone where bids are expected to be set by traders. Another upwards trend confirmation is brought by the ascending direction of MA200. As long as it keeps going up, the direction of the relevant trend is upwards.

Volume profile analysis suggests that 61k and 63k are the main local arbitrary levels. The daily close over 63k would likely be an early signal of the pattern’s upside breakout coming.

LTF 1H:

Hourly chart shows a failed head and shoulders pattern. Failed chart patterns tend to perform better in the opposite directions than expected. It’s yet another hint, that this failed pattern supports the upside breakout thesis. As any other formation, every chart pattern is a form of a sideways movement or a range.

Kind reminder for how to plan your range bound trades:

  1. Inside range trading (buy range lows or sell range highs)
  2. Outside range trading (buy the breakout retest or sell the breakdown retest
  3. Do not trade the range at all and wait for the trend to come up.

Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h MA)

Onchain metric showing off the mean of active addresses, which is one of the typical onchain indicators, shows a very important signal. Basically, the onchain has shown an upside breakout of the active addresses average while the price has been forming lower highs so far. This shows that behind the scenes the market is boiling already with strength that the price is not yet showing. I read that as underlying strength confirmation on the network side which often leads for the market direction. I’d refer to that as a “bullish divergence” yet don’t take it literally as you would for a proper technical bullish divergence. It’s supposed to help you understand that phenomenon better when the onchain is showing strength and the price is not reflecting that yet. On another note, it’s hugely amazing and feels great to so many people as our 14 Day Free Trading Congress signups are now LIVE! If you’re in for two week virtual camp, free two weeks of premium admission to The Birb Nest go and claim your free ticket. If want to join for multiple daily sessions, broadcasts, interviews, trading sessions with the biggest names in the space (and I truly mean it) gathering to help you up your trading game free of any charge whatsoever, then you must not miss out on this chance. More than 6,000 participants have already signed in less than 24 hours. Learn how to get ready for the final pumps, how to build your generational wealth in next weeks after years of waiting and study how to protect it against 99% real loss in bear market – all that for free. If you are not interested, that’s fine, keep scrolling and miss out as this opportunity is not coming back and the bear market will strike sooner than you expect. If you’re ready to boost your numbers to improve yours and your beloved’s lives, claim your free ticket below and join the free congress. See you there.