Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 5 2022)
The middaily chart shows a spark of upside volatility, as the breakout hints a successful follow-through, so far.
The CTF Trailer breakout triggered an entry alert for my trend following BPRO system. This also confirms BTCUSD has returned to the bullish favors, as the bears are holding the upper hand, again.
Approaching the High Momentum Band of BPRO at 22000 USD, BTCUSD may stand the chance to attempt an upwards breakout, which could trigger the medium-term rally towards the 25000 USD highs.
Otherwise, a break below the CTF Stop at 20600 USD cab trigger a further sell off, as the breakout pattern fails. Then, failed patterns tend to perform better in the opposite direction – here, toward 19000 USD support, as given by the Low BPRO Band.
The medium-term chart portrays somewhat bullish picture for the BTC price action.
Not only the naked chart analysis suggests strength as Bitcoin price approaches the upper right corner of the graph, but also the BPRO indicators have triggered more bullish odds.
The High BPRO Band has been breached with an upwards breakout above 21000 USD resistance, which matched the swing highs of the consolidation pattern preceding the breakout.
As a result, this validates the breakout on multiple levels: chart pattern breakout, volatility breakout, time-filtered breakout and momentum breakout.
The chances are that the bulls are going to benefit from historically bullish seasonality for November that tends to be the best performing month of a year, on average.
Unless a rapid and unexpected shift comes from the outside of the market, an exogenous signal, BTC has considerable chances of following through higher, toward 22000 USD, and then to the 25000 USD area.
For reference, please see the seasonality chart attached.
10-YEAR SEASONALITY STUDY: BTCUSD
Historically, BTC tends to perform best during November.
It returns over 22% ROI on average, as the detrended data suggests.
Novembers have historically had a success rate of 70% for the month to be bullish, over the last 10 years.
It should not be ignored, when planning to trade counter the breakouts.
Hope it helps. God bless.
P.S. I’ve got something nice for you – see the tweet below.