Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 30 2022)

HTF 1D

The daily BTC chart shows a minor breakout attempt toward the 17000 USD level.

The triangle’s upper boundary has been broken through to the upside. If the daily close through, this may bring a questionable incentive for the BTC traders to push the prices higher as the breakout trigger comes up.

Otherwise, a failure to settle above 16500 USD on the monthly close may suggest a further local continuation to the downside.

Overall, from the monthly candlestick perspective, it’s technically bearish whenever November closes below $20000 resistance and sets up for lower lows in December.

It’s a scarce situation when November closes negative for BTC. It seems to be the case this time.

MTF 4H:

In the medium-term time frame, no significant divergence signals have come up.

This suggests that the local price action still moves within a sideways range and, so far, hasn’t reached any extremes. It may continue a bit higher before it faces the local price barrier at the $17500 resistance.

Otherwise, a clear break below the $15500 swing low from the 21st of November may trigger a cascade of stop loss triggers and expose the miners to continued risks of them capitulating.

If the market moves sideways, there is no trend, and not much credibility should be put for any intraday breakouts. Such intraday breaks could easily originate from the market noise and not actual traders’ demand.

FEAR & GREED INDEX

Besides, at 29 points on the scale, BTC remains within the fear territory. However, the fear intensity has slightly decreased.

The more extreme the emotional triggers of the market participants, the closer to a potential market swing it gets.

Hence, the contrarian investors would more benefit from the extreme fear prints, than the slightly fearful environment.

The greater the index value displayed, the worse idea it becomes to counter trade the emerging trend.

Hope it helps.

God bless.