Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 28 2020)
As already shared in the Exclusive Nest Club chat, bitcoin is currently at a twist point sitting at super strong support from MA50, MTF VWAP after 16%+ decline. On the major scale, there are two types of corrections that bitcoin often provides traders with in a very sharp way: 1) ~15% declines 2) ~30-40% declines These come from major whale movements after very violent upside thrusting trends. This should be identified as whales realizing massive (50-100M $ profits). Note that the size of longs liquidations on the downside day reached as high as 200M+ $. It means that such amount of profits had to be realized and taken out of the market. While I personally did expect way more downside impulse after the breakdown retest sequence into the LTF supply zone marked in the chart, I realized that there. Is a very strong buy signal (provided that the daily sessions closes strong) in form of the 12H bullish momentum crossover in the oversold area FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE ENTIRE ~100% started. It means that very strong selling pressure is currently gone. It’s not confirmed yet of course. Nevertheless, it’s essential to realize the market context of such dump. If I were to locate the context based on the sentiment, price action, onchain, fa and technicals, then we’re around 3rd stage on the market cycle psychology cheat sheet (check the one below) – Hope & Optimism. Big dips are for buying. No questions asked.
There are two scenarios marked in the chart based on whether or not the LTF supply is reclaimed as support or rejected. Textbook scenario would assume bottom pattern and retracement down to 14k area. Irrationality of crowds and enhanced FOMO from new traders may actually push it through the resistance (they will buy the highs…). If LTF Supply is rejected with sharp fakeout and another strong selling pressure occurs, the gray scenario should take us to 14k (R/S flip level from 2019 highs+VWAP of the rally).
Intraday traders/scalpers trade the setup in #trade-setups. LTF-MTF traders should wait for LTF supply reclaim. Long-term traders are still long-term long until end of bull market.
MTF raindrops are showing symmetric triangle pattern giving the breakout currently. As you know from my recent cheat sheet about MA50. Prices tend to return to the mean in both directions – on the breakdown AND the retest. Currently it’s the in retest phase. Demand zone given in the latest raindrop analysis appeared to be thicker than expected, although it’s not necessarily surprising. In bull market supports tend to be stronger than in bearish trends, which implies more buyers will set their bids higher above the support than usual, which makes the price reverse sooner. Bullish upside continuation comes ONLY after reclaiming 18.5k resistance as a new support with a breakout retest sequence confirmation. Unless that happens, low 16k and 14k are on the table. The downside raindrop 19-17.5k on the downside day shows main volume-based level at 17.8k, which proves this is intraday resistance which should not be longed into by scalpers. Those who missed my successful call in #trade-setups from yesterday, feel free to long the breakout retest of the triangle. Ultimate P.S. Don’t forget that Black Friday massive discounted deal is about to expire. We’ll not wait for anybody who’s late. If haven’t used this massive discounted deal to purchase or renew/prolong your current membership, that’s your last call…
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