Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 27 2021)
The middaily chart represents a chart where bitcoin is trending downwards on a shorter-term basis still with no MTF downwards trend confirmation on the price action side.
Yesterday’s market sharp decline came immediately following announcements of new covid strain that disrupted all financial markets on the globe. Even Polish exchange took a massive hit, which isn’t obvious at all. That’s a micro black swan event I’d warned about that it may come out at any time to disbalance trading. Lots of liquidations kicked in with crypto MCAP declining more than 300 billion USD in a day. Unpredicted events outside the market do happen and will keep happening in future but by definition you can NOT predict them with any charts, rules, techniques, indicators available on the planet. It’s impossible to predict what Elon Musk will say or tweet about same way that we cant predict when the 99th covid strain variant appears (insane).
The micro crash event locally disturbed the market’s technicality and for now it’s not supposed to act rationally but rather go through a typical PTSD range phase where traders must first leave their denial/depression loop to start thinking rationally and wake up with thoughtful trading again. For the time being, I’d not expect too much predictability in this noise for next hours-days. The market needs time to recover and become technical again. Until that happens, its mainly a noise inside a choppy range of volatility which will keep flushing leveraged traders on both ends. Risk is not your ally now.
Technically, bitcoin is trading below its local aVWAP resistances 58782-59303 and as long as it does the support
at 50228 will act as a sort of a magnet pulling the price expectations down. As a result, self-fulfilling prophecy may make it happen that bitcoin will trade in very low 50000s for a moment. Is that promised or certain though? Not at all. The market is in extreme fear back again, which usually Is a good buying opportunity.
Overall, I consider this yesterday’s crash to be a sort of micro-covid-march-2020 crash, which does NOT disturb long-term bitcoin’s $100k orientation or my slow exit strategy. Just a short-term far-fetched deviation on the way up. When the bear market hits in next weeks-months though, you can be sure I’ll be here to inform you before that happens (unless planetoid doesn’t crash into earth and we all die or other unpredicted event)
MTF chart is trading downwards locally beneath a downtrend line. As we’re still missing the proper upside pullback into 63000s USD to define a lower (?) high, I choose not to call the entire move of past month till today a downtrend. Simply because it’s not. As long as we are missing the upside pullback to define higher/lower high vs 69k ATH, then to me it’s a trading range anchored between the ATH and extreme lows, even with 50k USD on the table.
AVWAP resistances show up at 54990 and once this one is broken then next price & volume based resistance is at 59505.
Key pre-breaker levels align at 58586 and 65281 and those should act as strong resistances or main interest areas for short-term bears so worth locking in some profits below them if you’re trading short-term.
Momentum is oversold on a daily, middaily and 4h chart clearly. Makes it a poor risk/reward for shorts. It doesn’t mean it’s a bottom necessarily. It just means that risk of being wrong here is bigger than the reward you can get out of it. Simply, not worth it for vast majority.
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric can also be calculated by subtracting realised cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap.
Now at 0.544 NUPL erased profits and trades at the same levels that bitcoin had at 48k USD area. While bitcoin is trading at 55k USD, it shows the higher up the price chart BTCUSD is as oversold as it was at 48k USD area. Shows the market maturing and having more upside growth potential than it had at 48000s. It’s bearish or neutral for short-term but bullish for long-term.
Other than this, no visible reversal signals from onchain divergences have arrived so far.
The sentiment has reverted to the same negativity consensus that bitcoin had at 40k USD and 30k USD reversals. Because of that I’m recognizing that as a THIRD BOTTOMING PROCESS. As any process in life, it takes its time and complexity to unfold but the result is known and it’s a reversal to upwards direction. It’s just a matter of near time regardless the bottom is in or one more tap into lower 50000s USD area. The market is always right in the middle of trend but always wrong at the extremes. Here the fear is extreme and the majority will be proven wrong again shortly. If I hadn’t positioned myself at 29600s in July and 40-41k in September, that would be my final entry here. I’m still peaceful and certain that unless unpredicted black swan destroys the world’s peace and order, we’ll see BTCUSD trading over $100k USD soon.
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