Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 25 2020)
Middaily has been locally showing slight weakness of an uptrend due to the lack of strong momentum. It doesn’t necessarily need to mean momentum crash and price action decline as long as key VWAP supports are held 18.7k & 18k. As attached at the very bottom of this market report update, there is an easy way on how to decide when the correction will appear for bitcoin. It’s by observing the main moving averages on the chart. When an uptrend accelerates this causes price action to deviate from the mean and prices have natural (statistical) tendency to return to the mean which may be buy-the-dip opportunity. Follow the early birb cheat sheet attached on the bottom of this update. Key local supports below VWAP if these broke, are as follows: 15.9-16.5k (MA50 area), 14.1-14.3 (MA100 area) and 12.4-12.7k (MA200 area). When prices retrace on short-term, it would come as MA50 retest. When the retracement is medium-term, then MA100 will provide a bullish reaction support. If it’s MTF-HTF reversal, then the deeper retracement occurs and MA200 will serve as the support. For volatility increase to the downside, observe when VWAP supports are broken and then momentum should break out of the sideways channel to the downside. That would signal strong bearish decline. Unless those happen, the trend is up across all the timeframes.
As mentioned above, it is quite easy to decide for when the correction is confirmed for bitcoin (although remember that it’s always game of probabilities, nothing else). Namely, traders should observe 50-period average over 4h chart. It gives a very clean setup for that average to be respected by bitcoin. Breakdown and follow-through below the moving average would be confirmed ONLY after daily (or weekly if daily doesn’t give) close below. Best risk/reward for longs during this uptrend rally for bitcoin, comes with the returns to the mean. While looking up at the resistances marked in 12h chart (19.8-20.2k, 21.2k, 22.6k), whichever dip returns to the mean 50MA, then it is a buying opportunity. If price declines/deviates below the mean, it’s safer to buy the subsequent break up through the mean or its retest. On another note, remember about the upcoming massive discounts on the black Friday promo. Also dropping big giveaway today 7pm utc so you can win some cash. Stay tuned and watch for announcements