Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 18 2020)
Middaily sessions seem to be in the final MTF process of forming blow-off top. Majority mistakenly assumes that “blow-off top” means an instant peak on the market. That’s not what it means lol. Blow-off top is A PROCESS and a MECHANISM of reversing the market while extremely greedy crowds keep buying an asset at unreasonably high prices “just to be in the position” because of FOMO. Synonym is “V-shape” reversal or a “spike top”. It consists of one big MTF-HTF candle being the quintessence of FOMO and peak of extreme greed which is met with powerful market selling from wise money selling off to the compressed long liquidity zone. To dump millions-billions $ on the market with little slippage, it can only be done via blow-off top mechanism and that’s exactly the reason behind this phenomenon. Greed must peak so that people are happy with buying at any price, no matter cost. From trading perspective it violates the sole base, unbreakable role of buying low, selling high and protecting capital against losses. There is no rationale behind buying currently into the ATH resistance area. When the FOMO kicks in, technical analysis S/R levels are by definition of limited use because of no rationale and extreme volatility on the market. Levels are just sweeped and smashed through by the crowds. Shorting this rally is out of question, as those are the liquidity providers. You can keep shorting entire rally up until you zero your balance and when you’ve done it the market reverses instantly. That’s how the capital migration from the impatient to the patient looks like.
No matter where the top occurs (I think we can even stop around ATH with 18953 as the final resistance before) but it feels it’s almost guaranteed that those who buy the ATH will meet regrets very very soon after. If longing, only scalpers are safe now. Adding current levels to long-term spot position makes completely no sense whatsoever. If one decides to play on current madness, only low timeframes and tight stops. The closer to the top, the bigger volatility, and the more often you will get stopped out. Do never forget supports: 17868, 15968, 141000, 12473
MTF picture revealed a massive 1.5k downside spike raindrop with volume oriented in the middle of the entire range. Currently forming small post-shock raindrops of consolidation and market searching for local equilibrium. 2.618 Fib extension tapped 18500s. Local VWAP support (blue) is confluent with 1.618 Fib support 17k. MA50 support is 16.1k and MA200 support is 14.1k. These levels on the correction should provide bullish reaction and bounces. As given in the 12h analysis, there is not much of resistance left to the upside towards the ATH. Shorting the top is unquestionably impossible – don’t dare try it. If having bitcoins it’s definitely suggested to keep taking partial profits – nobody has ever gone poor from taking profits and unrealized profit is no profit. Accept the fact you’re not going to sell the top and all of a sudden the game becomes clean, clear and simpler. Wherever the top occurs (potential levels 18564, 18953, 20000. Key is to stay rational now. Buying into makes little sense unless intraday scalps. Taking partial profits makes sense for sure.
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