Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 16 2020)
Weekly session has closed as a high-wave spinning top candle presenting traders with local rejection of HTF supply area 16.1-17.2k. Trend on the higher timeframes is unquestionably bullish and any correction that should come should be rather short-lived and considered compounding opportunity to reload more BTC/USD for long-term swing continuation and new ATH, which is imminent imo. Next weekly resistance nearby is mentioned 17240. Weekly support zones are 13880-14000 and 12.4-12.5k. 50-week average is just reaching 9700s while MA200 base 7230. These levels would serve as ultimate support in case of another black swan, unpredicted crash event across the globe, which is rather unlikely to happen. It’s definitely not suggested technically to ever long in to the high timeframe supply. Inside this zone whales are quite bound to take heavier profits off the table causing massive dumps and volatility, that will liquidate most of the unexperienced traders/weak hands.
Daily candlesticks have been being bought back fast on any intraday dump that occurred. Daily support levels are given as follows: 15.7-15.9k, 14.1-14.3k, 12.5-12.7k. VWAP is 14.2k, while the volume profile spikes of demand appear at 13k and 15.5k, which are considered strong supports as well. MA50 support aligns well with dynamic VWAP (blue) and PoC at 13k, while 200-day average approaches 11k. If current trend is sustained for the next few days, market may present traders with massive volatility on both ends, similarly to May-June 2019. ATH is inevitable imo, yet at least one more massive price discount should likely arrive.
Middaily sessions have recently provided traders with a rising wedge breakdown which is currently being retested. In case of rising wedge invalidation (breaking to new highs), there is high probability of a massive, ultimate short squeeze. Momentum is heavily overbought and keeps oscillating only in the upper half of the entire momentum boundaries. Any more massive correction can only occur when momentum declines below 50 points level. As you can see in the chart, there is a dashed upside trendline, lower boundary of the wedge, which would be the more up-to-date support line in case the wedge is invalidated and new highs are broken up. There are 3 Mas and 3 VWAP curves that are supposed to provide traders with LTF-MTF support levels, which are as follows: 15258, 14290-14400, 12473-12697. VWAPs are anchored at the beginning of every new-angle trendline. Even if price action decides to squeeze over leveraged shorts all the way up to 17k, then these levels still will serve as supports for any bullish reaction on the correction.
MTF picture is showing a break to a new high above 16.5k leaving the next Fibonacci resistance at 16986 and 17827 as the next major levels. As mentioned in the prior analyzes 16.1-17.2k zone is considered strong HTF supply, inside which longs are not safe to be opened. Supports don’t change vs what was already given above. While the trend keeps sloping up, traders should be aware of the floor beneath their feet so that they are ready and prepared for even worst scenarios. Expect the best, be prepared for the worst. Key level of short-term invalidation of bullishness is 15.7-15.9k, which in case of a breakdown could teleport btc down to low 14000s.
Not to repeat all of the above mentioned levels, scenarios and targets, hourly chart shows raindrops which are more bullish than bearish currently – all orange. As long as they keep closing above prior highs, the bullishness is sustained locally. Invalidation may come with SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) in case of a broken resistance and then the new support that can’t hold the supply pressure. Currently key level to hold towards 17k is 16.5k support.