Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 1 2021)
The monthly session ended up being the highest monthly close ever for bitcoin, basically a monthly ATH. After weekly ATH close confirmed, not this adds to the bullish momentum. If one can’t really recognize this as bullish and sees failures everywhere to justify their shorting every breakout now, they simple are not going to make it. It takes a special irrational mind to short the breakouts. Most likely those who got left behind at 30k and 40k (which I recently showed off proof for) are not switching either to longs after this 100% rally up, or they will keep shorting till $100k targets blowing up their accounts.
November is aiming $80k+ levels imo. December expected to be the definite power of bulls approaching the peak of the bull market. The biggest volatility, profits to be made ahead. The biggest risk is also to follow. The biggest amount of liquidations on shorts, then longs after the market peaks. When that happens, the capital flowing out of bitcoin will supposedly rotate over to the altcoins bringing the ultimate altseason and start of bear market 2022 soon after.
Monthly support is at the high of previous month which is around 52.5k and it should serve as a demand zone whenever unpredicted FUD news drags the price down there.
THE MAIN ROCKET IS TO BE LAUNCHED IN NEXT HOURS-DAYS-WEEKS. Buckle up
The weekly sessions are forming low volatility high-wave spinning top candles showing off consolidation in the previous area of weakness during April-May reversal period. This is bullish as it’s consolidation at the resistance. Do not confuse tertiary market fluctuations and intraday noise with strongest, the most powerful long-term signals that new ATH is.
50 – week average keeps ascending confirming the bull market continues and medium trend is upwards. This additionally confirms that new ATH breakout is a directional confirmation of upcoming bullish candles. Most likely, the largest volatility in next weeks will bring 10-20k daily candles and set it as default volatility. You’ll see bitcoin pulling 60k to 80k rallies way faster than it took bitcoin to break from 10k to 30k. We’re soon going to experience insanely explosive movements with a lot of external confirmation from outside the market – news, TV, corporate giants accepting crypto payments etc.
Local supports are at $58.5k and $60k. 50MA 1W sets strong demand on average around $44k and in case of a black swan, this should work as a support. Highly unlikely but always better to be safe than sorry in trading.
The daily chart analysis points out a couple of key, significant signals. Firstly, aVWAP volume-based trendline support shows off strong demand by volume at 57160 which is to be considered short-term support in case of any rapid declines out of nowhere coming from e.g. Elon Musk’s tweets.
Secondly, 50-week average as dotted curve is crossing over a April high – anchored aVWAP which confirms that long term upwards trend is stronger than April-August downside impact on the market. In other words, the 6-month retracement for 50-60% did not manage to unbalance the long term trend direction which is upwards.
Finally, the chart pattern of a bull flag still has not escaped outside the pattern instead showing the bitcoin is still lacking short-term momentum and leans more towards consolidation for new few days rather than immediate upside breakout, at least in theory.
Because of the plan I’d posted before (attached below), expect major tech companies to start announcing crypto payments soon, which may easily trigger algos to buy the news and cause sudden pump out of nowhere.
1) $BTC ATH in hours – check.
2) Institutional + retails FOMO – processing.
3) Tech giants->crypto payments – processing.
4) #Bitcoin pulls 150-200k peak
5) BTC reversal day 40-50k drop
6) Ultimate altseason
7) Bear market 2022
8) BTC bottom $10-20k (85% decline, MA200 1W) Dec 2022
Bollinger Bands are also consolidating with declining bandwidth. This signals volatility contraction and explosive move to happen, most likely in the direction of the prior trend – upside.
Volatility based supports are 61.2k, 57.2k while the resistance is 65.2k.
The moment bitcoin sees an upside breakout with a strong daily close over 65.2k, this is to be followed by an explosive move to smash through $70k resistance and teleport straight to ~$80k region imo. This targest is confirmed additionally by a theoretical bull flag pattern aiming for 85700s as conservative level.
The middaily picture is showing clean diagonal trend and pulsations oriented to the downside. This suggests it’s a downside-oriented corrective wave of a prior strong upside thrust from 42k to 67k.
It’s a healthy corrective movement hovering around its 20-period mean.
Volatility based support and resistance defined by a lower and upper Bollinger Band are given at 58.7k and 63.5k accordingly. A breakout in either direction should bring higher volatility and more risk for short-term traders.
Imo it’s under next 14 days that bitcoin sees a major explosive movement. Don’t get distracted by intraday noise and 500-1000$ up or down candles. It does not impact the long term trend direction and high timeframe confirmations given by a weekly or monthly chart.
MTF picture shows a zoom-in overview for the bull flag correction where the volume profile shows PoC (Point of Control) at 62.8k.
MA50 trades flat at 61.2k acting as a main reference level for the next hour. Anything over that level is short-term bullish and upside oriented to retest 63000s. Anything below that level brings 58.5k and MA200 57.2k supports if backed by an unexpected FUD news or tweet from Elon Musk.
As long as MA200 ascends, the main trend direction is upwards.
Hourly chart represents typical sideways movement where head and shoulders pattern occurred to be fake/failed as it most often does for bitcoin. In my trading career I’ve found H&S patterns to more often fail than unfold in the expected direction.
The range continues between the boundaries and demand zone 58.5-60k and supply zone 66-67k.
As long as it trades within those boundaries, BTCUSD is NOT trending hence its neither bullish nor bearish. It’s just neutral and as always, one may apply one of the trading strategies for the ranges:
- Inside range trading (buy range lows or sell range highs)
- Outside range trading (buy the breakout retest or sell the breakdown retest
- Do not trade the range at all and wait for the trend to come up.
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
I’ll keep reminding that the higher we go: unrealized profit is no profit. Many of you will likely fail and resist to realize any profits whatsoever thinking they’re smarter than the market. 90% of traders statistically time after time fail to realize profits and end up not only giving away all the profits (often 6-7 figures) back to the market, but also revenge trading their own financial input as a result of revenge trading.
NUPL>0.75 is a ready, steady, GO signal that it’s time to intensify realizing profits. From the time it happens, it may be few weeks up to 2 months historically that the market returns insanely high numbers within extreme greed/euphoria indications.
Whenever the market goes past 0.8 NUPL ratio, the whales activity boosts and final distribution process happens.
Currently at 0.61 it’s still far from bull market peak values and has lots of room to grow to the upside. In fact, the market is way more undervalued and much less over extended at the same $60k+ price levels when compared with April-May reversal period. This is what I’d call on-chain bullsih “divergence” where the onchain indicators are lagging behind the price. And the price has already breached new ATH. It’s bullish.
Here’s the visual representation of the said “divergence” or lag between onchain and price.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (168h MA)
As glassnode explains, this onchain metric stands for the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.
Similarly to NUPL, the active addresses mean shows off hugely undervalued onchain vs the condition in April-May reversal period.
There’s healthy trend alignment for short-medium term movements between the said onchain metrics and actual price of bitcoin.
Locally, I can see an upside spike on address activity which is not yet shown in the price. Might be an early, yet not too strong, warning that the larger upside movement is coming.
Still has plenty of room to grow to the upside while the price is already consolidating around ATH levels. It’s a bullish combination.
FEAR & GREED INDEX
As mentioned many times in the near past, the sentiment indicator may happen to remain overbought and in extreme greed from now for weeks and months to come and it’d still rather show a trend strength rather than any bearish divergence. Yet, anytime the market is inside the extreme greed zone, it’s always worth intenifying for taking the profits off the table. Currently at 74 and I read it as a trend strength more than a trend weakness. The market is always right in the middle of trend, but always wrong at the extremes. Now it’s the middle of trend. Finally, you will be able to observe the most explosive movements of crypto most likely in mid November, which is exactly when the 3rd edition of our 14 Day Free Trading Congress is starting. Last time we held 200k followers celebration in May 2021, it brought amazing success with 7,500 participants out of outstanding 148 countries.
Now when the market is ramping up for mainstream with amazing interest from the newcomers, we’re aiming to host 15,000 active participants out of 160 countries combined. We don’t charge for participation, it’s all free. We’ll hold about 30 sessions, webinars, interviews, AMAs, panel discussions, broadcasts within those two weeks. The goal is to propagate financial trading knowledge, skills, experience in order to prepare people to trade safely and secure wealth against heavy losses in the upcoming bear market 2022. It’s going to be virtual event between 12th and 25th of November 2021.
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