Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (November 04 2020)
After my Monday’s full weekly report, many of you already know what’s going on currently. Price action updates for Exclusive Nest Club members from earlier today do suggest short-term short squeeze is happening, although it’s not as powerful as it could be. Recent middaily sessions form an ascending sequence of candles in the low-momentum uptrend phase full of intraday fakeouts. These fakeouts (broken resistance, but session closes below new support invalidating lower timeframe bullishness) are typical to distribution processes. Whales need time to close their longs gradually and that’s exactly what exchange inflow spikes mean. For big investors, it’s a process to realize profits with little liquidity. They may need to e.g. squeeze shorts and trap bulls first to unlock enough liquidity to book profits. For this reason, the scenario presented in the chart attached may be due to realize. 14.6-15k retest with heavy dumping would make a perfect sense because of the recent huge spike onchain from the exchange inflows, that usually is followed by short term dumping, Wherever the top is (don’t you dare try to cath the top or bottom EVER), it’s definitely near-the-top area and longs are not safe anymore. Big intraday dumps of 500$+ declines are big investors market selling to realize long profits. Those who keep longing now no matter what for short term gains will likely prove themselves wrong.
MTF perspective reveals that profit taking process is going on unquestionably, while dips are bought back relatively fast. The way a trader should interpret it is that bigger investors are gradually closing their long positions at least partially (compare: big market selling candles) while FOMO from retail investors is still strong (fear/greed index at 74). This overall brings better and better environment for a solid dump to come. Because today’s short squeeze actually was not as impressive as expected, this means that many retail investors are still not interested in taking shorts apparently (another confirmation that buying FOMO is strong). It makes it possible to have another bigger short squeeze coming in high 14000s around 15000. It doesn’t change the fact that longs are definitely unsafe here for any other plays that intraday scalps (risky!). A lot of 3-5M $ short positions from whales opened around 13-13.5k area will probably end up in a decent profit anytime soon. Technically speaking, current support is 13.3-13.7k is LTF demand zone (VWAP+PoC+MA50+VWAP) and in case of a bigger dump this may bring local intraday bullish reaction in this area (no shorts for intraday scalpers in this area). Expected minimum of short squeeze ranges as high as 14643 (1.618 Fibonacci extension from local correction + 1.618 Fibonacci from black swan crash (see 12h chart attached). After 13.3k support is cleared in strong selling pressure, the next support level is MA200 at 12100.
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