Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (May 29 2021)
Middaily price action is as low quality as always on weekends in past few months. Cant recall the last time BTCUSD bullish price action on Saturday or Sunday. It was rather expected as delivered in my reports and yesterday’s webinar. BPRO volatility is squeezed with bandwidth 32.6-42.2k which provides biggest chances that in the following days we would most likely see BTCUSD trading inside this range. Any breakout would be considered abnormal volatility and short-term buying opportunity (if abnormal downside volatility) or short-term selling opportunity (if abnormal volatility on the upside). Key BWAP resistance remains at 44k and anything below and above 30k low is considered ranging and accumulation. RSI is clearly oversold while many traders choose to sell of supports in their panic and/or disbelief. Again, the entire choppy and low-quality sideways was all the way expected as PTSD movement lacking steam and “technicality” where technicals don’t matter too much. It’s mainly sentiment play and whenever the market fears too much, the big money counter trades the sentiment. Market is always right in the trend, but always wrong on the extremes (too bullish on tops and too bearish on bottoms). Key BPRO level to reclaim for safety of bulls is Breaker Low at 37496. Bulls are not in charge truly until 61013 Breaker High resistance is reclaimed.
MTF still trapped in PTSD ugly-looking sideways full of uncertainty, indecision. Any chart pattern or familiar formation currently is pretty much useless. Based on average volatility, we’re swinging between 31.4k and 40.8k and that’s short-term range for the next days. For those surprised – please watch my yesterday’s webinar and everything will become clear as it’s following the plan explained right after the crash happened. Worth refreshing back my previous video reports and bitcoin reports to verify it’s true.
I still consider that buying opportunity as long as Fear/ Greed index remains below 25 in extreme fear. Market top is NOT in and new highs will come this year unless any military conflict escalates on the global scale – then any market would crash. It is possible that current triangle-looking pattern would see a breakdown to look even more scary to force weak hands and shake them out of their longs. It is also possible that 30k low may get swept to trigger late shorts and liquidated over leveraged longs. One way or another, this area is a liquidity pool for whales and spots rather to accumulate than sell off. Price action wise, for bulls it is best to close the day above 34.7k which marked the previous demand area below that level. Also, do not forget Sundays are usually boring and slowly bleeding as well, so I would personally not expect any bullish fireworks tomorrow and would rather be surprised if that happens.Instead, it should continue its directionless, dull, boring, ugly, painful sideways to force the shakeouts. Medium-term bulls have anything to say only after reclaiming successfully BWAP 42k area and until then it’s nothing but bloody range. For now, expecting retest of long-range bottom band at 31.6k. Expect a lot of liquidity hunting, bull traps, bear traps in the following hours and days – that’s the definition of sideways.
Sentiment continuosly tapping into historical lows area marking out historical demand areas characteristic to major market upside reversals/bounces. It does NOT mean btc may not violate supports from now on. Instead, it suggests that current levels are oversold and warming up for influx of rapid demand anytime soon. Now that monthly derivatives expired, I’d expect open interest increase with lots of longs.Monday will verify if this thesis is true. The only thing needed right now is patience.
Onchain shows lack of interest from crowds in buying these levels. No bullish divergence spotted either. Based on that, I’d expect more chop in the upcoming week.
NUPL far from top with NO historical top signals produced in this market cycle yet. Most people would disbelieve me now, obviously, but I still am certain (as certain as you can ever be in financial markets – never 100% certainty), that BTC would bring 90-120k highs later this year in Q4.
IMO with this overall fear across the market after the crash, that’s the last spot for major institutions to join crypto in this cycle. In my opinion, many big players are getting ready for that now. Time will tell if it’s true. More info in #nc-video-report for exclusive members as always.
P.S. If haven’t seen my yesterdays webinar, consider that your homework.