Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (May 19 2021)

By Cryptobirb

HTF 12H:

Middaily has just had the wildest roller coaster BTCUSD ever witnessed. Covid crash 2.0. Nothing much of technical move when entire market gets liquidated. Insane “coincidental” timing for all FUD: Elon Musk selloffs, China bans, fear/greed levels unseen since covid crash. All combined resulted to overall very similar move to what we saw in March 2020. Exactly the same vibes. Largest liquidations in a single hour in history. Exchanges freezing, derivatives exchanges inactive, insane spreads between exchanges. Technically speaking, 30k support got retested first time since January-February period. Market is oversold across all low-medium timeframes. Insane buying opportunities with crazy discounts on BTC, LTC, ETH (50-70% retracements). Mean reversion levels are 50-51k and 55k which is where I would be expecting the market to head to in the upcoming days and weeks. Of course, it will take time for the market to recover. Overall, that’s a very nasty candle with volatility unseen ever before that could not be expected. There’s nothing bullish about the drop itself, out of question. But because it gives me exactly the same vibes as covid crash, Id expect this market to recover and continue going higher. It doesn’t feel like top and that’s not how tops for BTCUSD always looked like. With so crowded market of this size now, the only way to top out is with blow-off top at full euphoria. I see nothing but fear while the market peaks are always about extreme greed and COMPLACENCY. Here, people fear instead of thinking its just a healthy dip. Breaker High 61013 is still the level to reclaim by bulls and until then, the market is in recovery mode. Momentum oversold across all indicators now and that’s not how market tops look like in my opinion.

As after any other crash in the past, market will now take a few days to get over PTSD until it starts being “rational” or “technical” again. Until then, lots of choppy sideways, with several dips into low 30000s could be expected, but those are for buying. I’m expecting sharp recovery towards 50k levels and market reaction in this zone will define if it’s still bull market or premature bear market. Imo the first one. Also, my top indicator is definitely not anywhere near toppy levels. NUPL is showing the same pattern that it was showing in June 2017. NUPL ratio is at 0.53 and it’s not where tops are formed. I bet all my trading analysts experience and knowledge that it is NOT the top (unless WWIII outbreak occurs).

HTF 4H:

MTF chart is bearish as a result of the most violent crash in bitcoins history. Yet, marked a beautiful strong reversal hammer 30-39k size. It looks promising but Id definitely expect some scam wicks into low-mid 30000s for the late bargain hunters. Bearish momentum and volatility peaked. We were looking at real capitulation earlier today, very similar to the one that happened in mid March 2020. Again, any technical analysis applied to this PTSD state of the market is as wobbly as it gets as irrationality/fear is peaking so it’s hard to expect market to play out in any logical way. Expect intraday chop and still big volatility throughout the next days and weeks. Funnily enough, BPRO flashed all the warnings and signals before the crash happened (remember it doubles in pricing in 4 days so get yours if still haven’t). BPRO now would suggest that essential recovery level to break is BWAP resistance convergent with BPRO volatility band at 47.5-48k. As mentioned earlier in the report, Id expect BTCUSD to revisit 50-55k area in the upcoming weeks to define the next higher/lower high of the market. As long as the fear lasts on the market, this is a buying opportunity.

Im the last person to blame anything and anybody outside myself for bad trades so it’s unquestionable who’s responsible for their money. But more interestingly, fun fact, there is an intriguing rumor which seems to be evident and real that the entire move down was factually engineered by top whales to liquidate key player(s) in the market. Again, it doesnt change the state of things too much already but may bring some food for thought for your next days. Check out the real link with warnings posted in advance and insanely exact numbers given and attached below.

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