Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (May 10 2021)
Weekly candle closed as quite a bullish candle yet under near-length weekly baseline. This week’s bearish rejection of the baseline may trigger bearish trend change indication and if that’s the case, then it would be the first sell signal since November 2020 as we’re getting closer to Q3. The third quarter is most often the laziest one for bitcoin due to traders leaving for vacations, more ease and time spent away from the markets. If BTCUSD triggers the weekly sell signal, I would be very cautious about catching the dips as we could see low 40000s or below. I’d covered the reasoning and most likely scenarios on streams, webinars, Live Trading Stories and this scenario of bearish-to-neutral BTCUSD price action for the next weeks-months could be a perfect example and repetition of what we saw in Q3 2017. Overall bullish sentiment would be buried as people would lose faith in BTC. Irrationality on the market is very strong due to the influx of complete newbie traders so it is more likely for them to sell dips and buy tops. Worst case is that BTCUSD keeps slowly bleeding for the next few months until Q4 starts with the final upside legs for bitcoin – 90-120k. Bull market is still on, it just reminds me a lot of 2017 price action. Worth studying those charts for better context. BWAP support is at 43k and should be the main bounce area. Breaker High is 62584 and that level must be acquired by bulls with a strong weekly/monthly close through and above to officially continue the upwards rally. If that happens, then next targets area 72794, 80615, 93249. As long as Breaker High is not reclaimed, the supports worth watching are: 47526, 43k, 39706.
Daily close recently flashed buy signal on Saturday after closing through the baseline for the first time since April’s dumping. Today’s intraday price action is as clueless as it could get. We should not be surprised anymore by anything we spot on BTCUSD chart as past 3 months of price action is nothing else but a large 43-65k sideways movement, full of traps and liquidity hunts. I don’t trade 1D timeframe personally (my favorite timeframe is 12h) yet the visible buy signal is definitely more bullish than not, while it still remains part of the large horizontal “trend”. Breaker High at 62076 needs to be reclaimed by bulls to continue upside movement prior to the sideways. Otherwise, 45464 and 43800 BWAP levels are going to serve as support area for bulls.
Middaily session is about to close yet recent hours threw BTCUSD back to the baseline levels. It is still on the buy mode from BPRO, although weekly, daily candles bring threats of local reversals down to 50k (BWAP) or below. The range highs area over 58k keeps being sold while area below 50k keeps being bought. As always safest way to trade ranges is outside the pattern – buy the breakout retest on the upside and sell the breakdown retest on the downside. Middaily Breaker High at 61013 needs to be reclaimed by bulls, otherwise it is getting more and more likely that BTCUSD would revisit the range lows (42.9k-43227)
MTF picture is clueless as well, surprise. Every dump is being bought and every top is being sold sharply so that the price action of bitcoin gets hit with “micro PTSDs”. Lots of liquidations and irrationality at the market currently are coming from over leveraged traders trying to force the sideways movement to be bullish or bearish but it is neither of these. The pattern itself is neutral, yet what’s more important is its context. Context is bullish as it’s a long term sideways in a long term uptrend. Assuming no global tensions or military conflicts, BTCUSD should sooner or later break up towards 90-120k zones – no matter how unlikely that must seem right now. BPRO volatility bands suggest that estimated average volatility for BTCUSD occurs between 50.5k and 65.7k, while the short-range volatility suggests BTCUSD is trapped inside 53.4-62.8k range. Breaker High at 58142 is the main short-term target that bitcoin bulls should reclaim.
Hourly chart does not sustain trading in any direction. It just bounces and dumps subsequently at approximately same levels in a range – between 52k and 59k. Local oversold momentum (orange-colored area beneath the price action) suggests one could expect some upside pullback towards 58k. 53.8k and 63.2k is short-term trading range for BTCUSD before any major breakout occurs. Overall, as long as BTCUSD keeps going sideways. It’s just more or less clueless. Definitely not easy to trade so take special caution inside this range – easy to get liquidated. Avoid using leverage in directionless markets. The only strategy for playing inside-range price action is buying range lows and selling range highs. Breaker High is 58728 while Breaker Low is 55997 and any BTCUSD price action inside this zone is considered the most clueless and any predictions may get easily violated. Outside, BTCUSD gets aggressive pumps and sharp declines. It is suggested to monitor extreme band levels of BPRO long-length setup for 1h chart. Those suggest about the highest probability trading horizons for the next days, weeks and months. Besides, as your today’s “assignment”, I’d like all the readers to this report to go and check my today’s congress webinar where I explained quite a lot of useful tips which can literally save you from losing. Watch, like and subscribe for our official The Birb Nest youtube (with the link below). If by any chance you’re still missing out on the entire congress, apply for the last seat with the bottom link attached. God bless.
Watch – youtu.be/zIGjM0dYRuU