Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (May 05 2021)
Middaily sitting in the good old low-momentum sideways movement since February. Range bound extremes still at 65k and 43k and anything between is considered non-directional, clueless and chaotic. Any chart pattern, for instance recent inverse head and shoulders, is much less reliable when it occurs inside a range rather than an uptrend or a downtrend. Still, the baseline is currently going flat. Price action performed another case of mean reversion Ive been talking about so much in past months. Price of bitcoin resisted at short-range volatility band of 58.6k and threw back towards 52.9k as warned in my premium video-reports. So far BTCUSD has not printed additional bear signal for my system yet its balancing at the very edge. It’s not too encouraging either for bulls or for bears. It’s just neutral, like any other sideways. It’s just the market context that always defines the probable direction of the range breakout. In this case, the primary trend is upwards, so whatever happens inside the trading range between 43k and 65k, it doesn’t matter much as high chances we would see an upside breakout in the following weeks. BPRO bands are flat, which means that current price action is sideways, flat – surprise. BWAP support aligns perfectly well with short-range support band at 50k and in case of any further contraction on the bearish side, this level would serve as a strong support. Bottom band is 47k, so anything between 47k and 50k is considered short-medium term demand.
Remember there’s always the chance of following Wyckoff-looking retest of the range lows around 43k just to fear the new traders, make them believe the bear market starts, let them sell the supports right into the final influx of institutions like Alibaba, amazon, google, Microsoft, ebay, etc. BPRO key levels are as follows: R2 72638 – far volatility resistance R1 65591 – near volatility resistance Breaker High 61013 – needs to be reclaimed by bulls for official upside expansion Breaker Low 54207 – bulls need to defend this area not to let any daily session close below BWAP 50k – aligns with short-range bottom band support S1 42823 – in case of said Wyckoff-looking shakeout. S2 35776 – improbable to tap, but worth keeping in mind in case of unpredicted global tensions Besides, Im very positively “surprised” by a strong and sharp recovery on the onchain addresses basis. Sharp recovery means influx of interest and potential base of buyers, means supports are building. It’s definitely more bullish than bearish. Although, as long as BTCUSD remains in the mentioned trading range, market is kept in the “ready, steady” mode but without “go”. I’d love to see an upside breakout in the falling tendency of the past 3 months on SMA7 of the onchain addresses. Other than that, Im beyond excited for the day 3 of our amazing, successful virtual congress. Make sure you’re part of it not to miss out on free lifetime opportunities. Make sure you subscribe to our youtube channel and turn your bells on to stay up to date and be able to watch the replays later. Go!