Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (May 03 2021)
Weekly candle closed in a bullish manner saving the entire week’s price action. While short-term wise BTCUSD stays below its near-length baseline average, the bull trend is safe as long as we keep closing weeks over BWAP support 42.6k or until BPRO suggests first sell indication ever since November 2020, which would signal taking some major profits off of the table. Until that happens, BTCUSD is bullish, in local sideways with key resistance at Breaker High 62584. If weekly close occurs over that level, then the next resistances are as follows: 73945, 81890, 94724. Key supports on the weekly are: 48278, 46396.
Daily candle still has not flashed bullish trend change indication on the default settings, which makes the middaily bullishness a bit more vulnerable. The daily session today has attempted to break through the baseline resistance of 58.4k yet with local rejection so far while 4h+ left to the daily close. The main support provided by BWAP remains at 43.3k which with S1 at 46147 creates a demand zone for short-term and medium-term bulls. Daily bullishness is brought with strength only after successful reclaim of the said baseline 58.4k resistance. For clean uptrend break it is needed to close the week through the Breaker High 62076. If that happens, the levels to look at are as follows: 70681, 78275, 90542. Medium term perspective is still trapped inside low momentum trading range between the extremes: 43k and 65k.
Middaily session is resisting right at the short-range volatility band while the overall band direction is starting to smoothen local downtrend to turn into flat movement on average. As described for the daily picture, medium-timeframe is still in the same low momentum sideways movement full of traps, uncertainty, and clueless directions. Current volatility range is between 47k and 61k and as long as BTCUSD trades inside this range traders would experience numerous intraday traps, liquidity hunts, sharp liquidations, fake breakouts, etc. Key levels to pay attention to:
Breaker High 61013 which needs to be reclaimed by bulls for safe uptrend expansion Breaker Low 54232 (baseline level) which must be held for local uptrend, otherwise bears will take over locally
BWAP support 50k
Long-range bottom band 47.1k
To know about early warnings that the inverse head and shoulders breakout is fake, observe the neckline of the pattern. The moment that middaily session closes below the neckline in an ugly manner, the breakout could be considered fake.
MTF picture is focused on local uptrend initiated with a buy indication at 50k on 25th of April. The uptrend can be identified by looking at the price action of BTCUSD (higher highs and higher lows), rising baseline average, advancing volatility bands. Key levels marked with BPRO on the upside are 69338 and 76787 and those could only be unlocked after successful reclaim over the Breaker High at 63222, which is not an easy thing to do for BTCUSD if we account past 3 months. The most important level for bulls to defend now is BWAP support at 55.6k, which perfectly aligns with the inverse head and shoulders neckline. In case this level is violated and daily candle closes below that support, the neckline is invalidated, local uptrend becomes irrelevant and entire price may head down towards 54k or 48.8k (Breaker Low). It is probably the most essential level for local bitcoin situation.
Hourly picture shows exactly how clueless the market still is as long as it trades inside the low momentum choppy zone. Just another example of the fakeout on top of the range. Momentum waves are tight showing the entire movement is lacking momentum and driven without proper sustainability. It may easily present a fake breakdown on the range lows area and come back inside the range to continue higher. It’s really clueless as we speak yet ahead of the daily close, for bulls sake it is better not to lose the range lows (BWAP area: 56-56.4k), otherwise things may get bit uglier towards 54k in a sharp decline with lots of liquidations. As long as the entire movement is clueless, non-directional and sideways, I don’t recommend trading derivatives, futures or options but focus on holding through spot or waiting on the sidelines tethered – depending on your trading system and strategy. Below the range lows, bulls are in danger.
NUPL shows still belief chart with reasonable area to slowly keep taking profits off of the table. No aggressive signs of bull market reversal anywhere here so far. Ongoing price range is also backed by NUPL sideways correlation, showing that the range in price comes from the fact that big money is distributing their profits around the range highs, resulting in NUPL ratio declines. It looks like it’s one of the final horizontal “trends” of this bull market. As history learns, wee may see a few minor corrections on the way up before the market tops out in blue NUPL mode with ratio over 0.75. Whenever NUPL ratio exceeds 0.75, I will be scaling out of the bitcoin market aggressively
Bitcoin New Wallet Addresses chart displayed in form of the MA7, shows disturbing decline while price kept climbing up in the low momentum movement in past 2-3 months. Most worrying from the short-term perspective is the fact that the MA7 declines heavily despite price taking a bounce from 47k lows. I read that as a form of local weakness on the bulls’ side as it may suggest that the price action trend is not backed by big amount of new traders joining the space. Hence, this weak MTF uptrend (also referred as low momentum sideways) is not sustainable. On another note, we have successfully launched our fourteen day free trading congress with almost 5000 participants who subscribed free for the event at no cost. Amazing success on the opening shows today and tomorrow will see no slowing down. If haven’t claimed your limited seat with free membership gift, discount codes, top-rate webinars, you’ve already missed out on today’s shows so make sure you dont miss whats coming now. Join with the link below if you appreciate this free market report and I see you at the congress.
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