Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (March 23 2022)
The middaily chart seems to be slowly improving with an ascending sequence of candlesticks. However, the breakout has not come yet.
Firstly, price action wise, BTCUSD has never escaped the coil pattern ranging from the 33000 USD support and the 46000 USD resistance. Instead, there has been a contraction of the boundaries of the triangle towards an invisible apex. Factually, bitcoin has made local higher highs and higher lows, classifying that as a short-term upwards trend. In order to see more explosive breakout, bitcoin would need a clean break above 46000 USD with a weekly close through, in my opinion.
The BPRO seems to be confirming the thesis. The Momentum Bands show off the most probable range of trading for BTCUSD to occur inside the 37.8-44.2k USD zone. Optionally, when taken to more reliable extremes, the range becomes 36800-45300 USD. For a powerful and reliable breakout in either direction, BTCUSD needs to close a day outside this region. If there’s no follow-through to the upside, above $45300, bitcoin is not considered for the breakout validation.
With most recent CTF Trailer flip, BTCUSD has marked the chart with a “Bull” note, which implies that the bulls have re-gained the control over the market – potentially, targeting 50000 USD.
The MTF chart implies the short-term upwards orientation with local retracement chances.
The Wave Pivots analysis suggests that BTCUSD remains on the bullish side of the near-term trend.
Locally, there seem to be two main levels to pay attention to the most. The resistance at $42900, and the support at $41400 are both the levels that trap bitcoin inside a narrow range. Until there is a breakout through either of these, the volatility of BTCUSD is not expected to be intense, but rather focused on consolidation leading to a more powerful break.
If the $42900 resistance notes a strong 4h candle close above, the next expected target remains at $45000. Otherwise, a break below $41400 with an ugly daily breach to the downside implies chances for further downwards continuation into the 38000 USD or 35000 USD supports.
The BWAP block backed by both price and volume seems to be marking a crucial arbitrary region for bitcoin to overcome – 42000-42300 USD. If bitcoin holds the base today above it, the chances are another retest of the 45-46k USD zone area are coming sooner than later.
The hourly chart of bitcoin shows a set of interesting patterns.
Firstly, there seems to be a pennant pattern, or – more likely – a variant of a falling wedge. It’s a little bit vague here, as more often than not the pennants occur after sharp up-thrusts as a quick consolidation pattern – a form of a re-load moment for the market. For the wedges, these are more often patterns with both boundaries – trend lines, contracting in the same direction – here: descending. Occasionally, pennants also point in a descending direction, yet it’s lacking a strong pump (the poll) prior to the pattern, as well as it needs to account for a bigger context – larger range-bound movement with dominant sideways and low-momentum move. Regardless of the label, a potential measured breakout to the upside may unfold into the $43500. An instance of the pattern invalidation and a failed breakout may lead to BTCUSD returning to the 40-41k USD region.
The BPRO CTF Trailer has been marked as “Bull” with the recent move up. Hence, it makes more sense to anticipate an upwards continuation as the bulls are in control.
Furthermore, the resistance defined by the BPRO Level Lines is given at $42557
BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”
As the graph suggests, the sentiment remains in the fear territory. Having marked 31 points on the scale, it still shows that bitcoin has not escaped the disbelief environment and may indicate that a stronger upwards trend has yet to be developed, in order for the traders to believe it.
Historically, buying into extreme fear or fear has usually brought better returns when compared to selling into fear or shorting.
The way I see it, bitcoin still remains at the cheap levels, yet it’s not managed to build a move full of momentum and consequence. It’s a fearful consolidation.
Unless the Russia-Ukraine war escalates into a proper nuclear war, I’d expect bitcoin to eventually record na upwards breakout with more explosive move above 46000 USD resistance.
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