Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (March 21 2022)
HTF 1W:
The weekly chart displays a set of long-term chart patterns bitcoin has recorded over the course of the past few years. Let’s have a more detailed look into it.
After very powerful upwards trend of 2020, the market has noticeably weakened into the 2022, at least in terms of momentum. Once upsloping rally has changed its trajectory to mostly sideways, as it may seem. Technically speaking, it is rather a not-aggressive upwards trend with apparent loss of momentum. BTCUSD still seems to be trapped inside a large chart pattern, that for the sake of it I dare call a rectangle or a box with boundaries at the 28800 USD support, and the resistance of 69000 USD. More often than not, such a chart pattern occurring after a third Elliot Wave in the direction of the primary trend (bull market) plays the role of continuation, rather than reversal. Locally, bitcoin has also been trapped inside a smaller chart pattern – a symmetrical triangle or a coil – between 33000 USD and 46000 USD. Only a breakout outside either of these levels could result in a new medium-term trend determination.
Moving average wise, BTCUSD has shown to consolidate in a low-thrust uplift, seen in the chart as two bumps. Such a pattern of a smoothed price action may be wrongly interpreted as a double top. Wrongly – because it has never been confirmed yet with a breakdown and successful retest downwards. As of now, the 20-week average value of BTCUSD is set at $45202, and it make sense to expect more explosive thrust to the upside as soon as there is a weekly close above the resistance. Such could indicate higher chances of BTC reaching towards the higher extreme of the range-bound nearing 70000 USD.
A clean breakout above 70000 USD could result in a measured move into the 100000-110000 USD ATH region. On the other hand, a strong and definite downwards breakout below 28800 USD support could imply the end of the bull run. Until then bitcoin remains in a bull run.
HTF 1D:
The daily chart is picturing a narrow range of volatility boundaries which have been contracting more and more over the past weeks.
Price action wise, bitcoin has been trading inside a coil pattern of higher lows and lower highs, towards an invisible apex. On the resistance side, the main level to reclaim remains 46000 USD. On the support side, bitcoin now is displaying two main levels 38600s USD, and 33000 USD. A break below the first one, may imply further chances for reaching the target in the south at the swing low.
The BPRO wave pivots seem to stand in line with those objectives. Additionally, there is a thick supply block (gray zone) right above the main resistance of $42500. This area is of resistance clustering 43-45k USD. The near proximity of these levels makes me think of it as one thicker supply region 42.5-45k USD, which only if broken through to the upside may bring enough fuel to recover into the $60000s. For that, BTCUSD needs a daily or a weekly close outside 46000 USD.
HTF 12H:
The middaily chart has apparently been trapped within the zone of regular volatility for BTC.
Per the BirbicatorPRO, btcoin seems be trading with no upwards volatility advantage. Instead, it’s trading at (now) $41100, whereas the Momentum Bands define the resistance of 44-45.3k USD, and the support of 35.7-37.2k USD. As long as BTCUSD trades between those boundaries, the market keeps ranging with no actual direction or favors given to bulls or bears. A proper breakout to the upside through 45300 USD level could ignite a larger rally, potentially targeting 45000 USD or 50000 USD regions. A downwards breakout could lead into the 33000 USD retest, or lower.
The CTF Trailer has marked a “bull” indication, followed by a local weakness resisting at the 41-42k USD zone (gray BWAP block). The CTF Trailer stop is at 39154 USD. As long as bitcoin keeps closing days above this level, the bulls control the market, in spite of local weakness.
MTF 4H:
The MTF chart seems to be having no follow-through to the upside in terms of volatility.
It is, because BTCUSD has seen no 4h close outside the upper BPRO Band, which could trigger abnormal volatility marks. Instead, bitcoin keeps oscillating in more or less chaotic, upsloping movement between 39.2k USD and 43.7k USD.
The BWAP block supports bitcoin at 41-41.3k USD support and until there is a strong close below that zone, BTC is rather set to near $43000s, the way I see it.
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistance at $42363 and supports as follows:
40448
36900
35474
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”.
LTF 1H:
The hourly chart seems to be displaying consecutive series of consolidation-type candlesticks, equipped with little real bodies and lots of noise (wicks) on both ends of the candles.
In an overall feeling, it seems to me that bitcoin has not escaped the range bound trajectory and remains neutral as of now – despite BTC 12h chart marked a CTF Trailer breakout. There seems to be lots of traps included, which is typical to sideways environment, as well as little consequence in terms of directions – little to no follow-through in either direction.
The BPRO Bands show off resistance at 42000 USD and support at 40400 USD. A breakout outside either one could result in more thrust in the direction of the breakout and higher chances of final escape of the ranging territory. As of now, no symptoms of such yet.
The resistances defined by the BPRO Level Lines are given as follows:
42557
41748
BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
40907
40170
39069
38369
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement can be expected to act as the next “magnet”.
FEAR/GREED INDEX:
To understand the sentiment change better, please let me quote back what I said on Saturday:
“Per the visualization, the index still remains within an intense fear territory, which historically has brought, more often than not, reversals to the upside.
Now, with 28 points on the scale, this may be a continuous tip from the market itself that buying into the fear has usually generated positive returns, better than it was for selling in those conditions.
It is not a perfect timing indicator and it will not show a timed entry suggestion. However, it offers a fair note for when bitcoin is considered cheap or expensive.
The contrarians may, hence, consider bitcoin relatively cheap at current levels.”
UPDATE:
Now, that the index shows 30 points on the scale, there’s little to no visible change in terms of sentiment. The market remains quite pessimistic about the next days of trading for bitcoin. Because it’s not in the extreme fear territory anymore, it implies a bit more risk with regard to opening fresh longs at current levels. The market seems to be pricing bitcoin as cheap now, and historically this has rarely been a wrong idea in the hindsight. Yet, there may be better buying opportunities, when there’s extreme fear reading. That being said, the market has been skewed towards the pessimism for the past 5 months almost, so there’s only so much time left on the negative side. In my opinion, this should still be read as a part of potential bottoming process. Provided that the Russia-Ukraine war does not escalate further into a nuclear battle, bitcoin may continue to unfold upwards accounting it has earned a lot of a bullish potential.
For more insights, visit my video report available to the exclusive subscribers.
P.S. Great job to The Birb Nest team and congratulations on historical record of 100% win rate achieved last week – all the trade calls posted were completed in profits! Amazing talents.
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