Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (March 19 2022)
The middaily chart has just received a bullish boost confirmation with the yesterday’s breakout to the upside.
Most recent bullish moves after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s triple-witch close of the week for equities, bitcoin has managed to confirm an important trigger signaling that the bulls have managed to re-gain local control over the market, at least for the next couple of das.
The CTF Trailer has marked another bullish breakout with the daily close above $41590. This indication brings bullish narrative back in the game as the bulls re-gain the upper hand over previously lost territory. Accounting the inter market factors and strength in equities, bitcoin may receive an additional boost from strong correlation with the S&P 500 index.
The BWAP block shows volume-backed region of 41000-42000 USD, which when records a daily or weekly close through it should give final confirmation towards the new medium-term highs over 46000 USD. For even more certainty from the technical side, the bulls should anticipate a daily or a weekly close through 42350 USD level.
Short-term bullish concept invalidation comes with a daily close below the CTF Trailer Stop at $38947
Furthermore, BPRO Level Lines show resistances at:
Meanwhile, BPRO Level Lines show supports at:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
The MTF chart shows a decent bullish-looking price action for BTCUSD over the course of the past few days.
Firstly, price action alone implies a successful triangle breakout to the upside with a retest and a follow-through confirmation. While the chart pattern remains inside a larger directionless, sideways movement 33-46k USD, every breakout increases the chances of a larger reversal. Hence, this local breakout may have longer-term implications and chances to bring a breakout also through the main 46000 USD resistance.
Otherwise, a failed swing (failure to close above 40000 USD) can result in further consolidation and additional couple of weeks of waiting on the sidelines.
The BPRO Bands show more upwards space to grow. Volatility based resistance zone is now at 42500-43100 USD. A strong outbreak outside this region upwards may bring enough of thrust to continue into the said 46k USD resistance.
If BTCUSD fails to maintain trading above the local BWAP resistance 41.5-41.9k USD, then there are chances for a retest of the 39000 USD support.
For now, BTC seems to be targeting 43000 USD or 46000 USD resistances. Although, be mindful about the fundamental shocks coming from Russia-Ukraine war. An instance of a nuclear war may easily distort even the best-looking setups…
The hourly chart seems to have been struggling to break out through the $41900 resistance.
Yet, a successful outbreak above this level could add a lot of fuel to the bullish fire with chances for a more explosive thrust in the upwards direction. Potentially, this instance could trigger a larger rally into the 45-46k USD supply.
Otherwise, a failure to hold BTCUSD above $41900 may cause a short-term fall into the lower regions supported by the Wave Pivot blocks. There is a thick, brick-like support cluster in the 40500-41150 USD region, with additional pivot level at 40400 USD. This near proximity of the levels implies the entire 40400-41150 USD region can be considered one cluster of supports, inside of which BTCUSD may have higher chances of forming an upwards bounce pattern.
A fall and close below 40400 USD may cause a cascade of long liquidations into $37800s.
Overall, it seems apparent to me, that bitcoin still has not obtained its full potential and momentum to grow. That being said, it looks like a promising start and a spark that can trigger much larger rally.
Per the visualization, the index still remains within an intense fear territory, which historically has brought, more often than not, reversals to the upside.
Now, with 28 points on the scale, this may be a continuous tip from the market itself that buying into the fear has usually generated positive returns, better than it was for selling in those conditions.
It is not a perfect timing indicator and it will not show a timed entry suggestion. However, it offers a fair note for when bitcoin is considered cheap or expensive.
The contrarians may, hence, consider bitcoin relatively cheap at current levels.
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