Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 28 2021)
Weekly candle got the rescue from bulls last minute and was eventually saved with the candle formation of bullish hammer. About two hours before the weekly session closed, the market saw heavy spot buyers inflows with organic growth and decent buying volume. Lates week was eventually dominated by bulls with large lower candle shadow signaling the demand layer was created in 28.8-34.6k region, which stood for about 80-90% of the entire week’s range. The market is bouncing at the previous supports area from January 2021 in 27.7-32k region. Note that extremely oversold trend and momentum per Birbicator on the bottom of the chart. This oversold market has only been seen three times in past 3 years of this bull market cycle and after every signal of this kind, the market saw massive upside rally/recovery subsequently with 335%, 789-1582% (min-max range). Currently, BPRO suggests main local resistance at BPRO ~40k which coincides with R1 and once this level is closed through on the weekly, space between R2 and R3 44377-51332 is the next large area of interest, which in my opinion is coming. Breaker Low 33117 was saved and as long as bulls defend this region, upside pullback concept towards 50-55k area is safe. In case of military conflicts, unpredicted events, Elon Musk’s FUD tweets, FED’s FUD news, blacks swans, etc. we should keep eyes on supports beneath S1 26162 and S2 21857. Nevertheless, chances of visiting back these levels are very low and could only happen with insane FUD on side. For now, BTCUSD is imo looking ready for recovery.
Daily picture has just got better after decent-size buying candle on Sunday. Obviously, still the same trading range between 30k (28.8k) and 42k. If bulls manage to close the day over 35k, it may be early sign of upcoming 38k daily VWAP trendline retest which marks the range highs region price action- and BPRO-wise up to 42k. BTCUSD is currently trading over default daily baseline average while still on the bearish sign of the trend based on BPRO. This aligned with 12H buy signal suggests to me that 12h chart is ready for reversal while daily picture still needs a little more confirmation. I’d consider that still early reversal signal but “early” means here that it’s all wobbly and vulnerable as long as it trades inside 30-42k range. Breaker Low 30509 was defended and as long as this level is held, bulls are aiming at R1 36916, R2 40883 and R3 47290 targets. Breaker High 62076 hasn’t changed and is still the main target to break in order to bring back 90-120k targets on the table. Volume wise, once 38.6k BVWAP trendline breaks, next stop is upper BVWAP trendline at 45k.
BTCUSD trading over the baseline again. Best for bulls if BTCUSD closes the day over 35k resistance which showed supply in past few days so closing over this level will mean local reclaim and market being ready for another, final 38-42k attempt. BVWAP trendlines showing off space between 41k and 43.5k to be where MTF bears remain, which once cleared unlocks R2 45382 and R3 52494 targets. Breaker High 55049 is where bulls may be stopped if BTCUSD enters into 50k territory.
MTF picture ofc trapped inside MTF range after 55% crash with local intraday consolidation going on inside VWAP trendlines supply 34-35k. If daily closes over this resistance cluster, R1 38432 seems to be the next stronger resistance for bulls to reclaim. Short-term BPRO flashed buy mode while we’re looking at an actual pattern of an ascending triangle. Remember, that when patterns occur inside sideways range, they are far less reliable (check my latest webinar or video on youtube – attached below). Breaker High 39610 is the most essential levels to break for bulls in order to get out of the range in the upwards direction. The fakeout on the bottom stands bullish and suggests that this should have been the final bottom before upside pullback intro 50-55k region. Provided that no military conflicts or unexpected black swans occur, BTCUSD is rather bound to retest high 40000s or low-mid 50000s in the upcoming weeks.
Hourly timeframe is showing a triangle pattern on the bottom which if shows a technical breakout the way technical analysis would suggest, it would suggest that BTCUSD is finally ready for an upside breakout above the 30-42k range. Local BWAP support at 34k seems to be holding so far and while that may change at any time in next hours, consolidation in local uptrend may be a continuation signal provided that bulls show enough strength. If every pattern/setup that seems to be bullish continues to be disrupted or invalidated as it’s been the case ever since May 18th, then we continue ranging inside 29-37.5k volatility range as BPRO bands suggest.
Breaker High 35548 proves, that once daily closes over this level it would mean intraday reclaim from the bulls. That’s the main short-term level which will decide if BTCUSD goes into 38-42k range highs region or consolidates for longer inside local 30.5-35.7k zone.
In case BWAP 34k support bursts, retest of the baseline 33k would be next.
Net Realized Profit/Loss
Just like Glassnode materials explain, Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit – Realized Loss. Gauging on the most recent capitulation with $3.5B retail liquidations/realized losses, this is yet another indicator of an upcoming upside reversal in my opinion. Historically speaking, each and every single realized loss capitulation spikes (min. 3x larger volatility than usual) in this bull market cycle, has shown massive upside reversals soon after. No reason to think that this time would be different 🙂
This is unprecedented event, statisticall speaking, that we’re seeing Extreme Fear sentiment holding for so long (1.5month already). Remember that extreme fear is usually great buying opportunity for most of serious, fundamental traders.
Notice that this is the first time in recorded chart history, bitcoin has had this long bearish sentiment holding. Even December 2018 bear market bottom did not record such a long extreme fear period. In my opinion this is what is characteristic to major upside reversals. Remember that the market (retails) is always right in the middle of a trend, and always wrong at the extremes (overly bullish on peaks, overly bearish on bottoms). So far this has been nothing but reliable indication. P.S. Big change for better is coming which many of you will love. Stay tuned for that and in the meantime, make sure to review my latest webinar with the link attached below.
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