Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 22 2022)
The middaily chart has recorded a local slow-down to an upwards bar sequence. While it’s not a confirmation for some abnormal strength or momentum for bitcoin, it is somewhat promising.
The CTF Trailer remains downwards-oriented, with a flat critical level at $23141. Until that level is broken through and reclaimed with a daily or weekly close above it, the bears remain in control. This suggests that the overall theme is more bearish than bullish, and the resistances are more likely to maintain strength, and the support – weakness.
The 200-week average is also seen in the chart in the form of the black dotted line, sloping upwards. It provides the long-term anchor, support at 22.4k USD.
Historical records suggest that the 200-week average has usually served as a long-term support area with stronger buying pressure beneath that level.
While history does not repeat, it often rhymes.
The MTF chart shows a promising turn for the short-term bulls – a light in the tunnel?
That is, because the CTF Trailer has turned around in favor of the bulls, after the main resistance at 21000 USD was broken with close through it. This has started a new potential tide to the upside, which adds a little bit of more bullish tendency to the shape of the patterns and upwards potential.
As long as the CTF Trailer Stop – the critical threshold at $18748 is defended, BTCUSD has the potential to complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a descending neckline.
This additionally adds confluence and significance to the 21000 USD resistance level. The more traders recognize it, the more orders will cluster around it, and the greater the magnitude of the breakout, when it comes.
Those are early attempts of developing a longer sequence and upwards persistence out of a ranging pattern.
The short-term price action shows a local rounded bottom pattern, forming around the main support area – potentially promising.
The confluence of resistances seem to be pointing out towards the 23-23.3k USD area to play the role of a supply cluster, where the sellers may aggregate. The first approach may encounter a selling barrier because of that.
The 12h HTF Trailer overlays the chart with the Level Lines resistances.
While the support is given at 20558, the Level Lines define resistances are projected at following anchors:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
The sentiment continues to stay at its historical depths and lows typical of the bear markets.
Visually, the capitulation pattern observed these recent days reminds a lot the past capitulations seen through this cycle since 2018 bottom.
The moment that the market confirms bottoming out, the new – 5th cycle will officially start, leading to potentially higher objectives (if the fundamental pattern relying on digital scarcity from the halving remains relevant).
Now, at 11 points on the sentiment index scale, bitcoin still rests at historically low records, Those can be interpreted in favor of the contrarian investors (mean-reverters), who would buy into the panic selling, and sell into the FOMO buying.
The history learns that underinformed crowds are always wrong at the extremes. And history often rhymes.
Hope it helps.