Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 20 2020)
Middaily close coming in 1h30min but commenting on the one already closed along with the daily close, we did record a candle close below averages: MA100 on 12h and below MA50 on daily. Both combined with bearish momentum crosses – although not the most reliable yet – bring more bearishness for short-term perspective. We’re trading at exactly 50% retracement level of the entire 8100s-10400s range. We’ve been consolidating for past 50 days which classifies this movement as medium-timeframe horizontal trend. And we still remain within the consolidation until we break out with either direction: bearish trend initiated with LEGIT breakdown and trading below range lows of 8100s, or bullish trend continues along with LEGIT confirmed breakout above range highs of 10400s (best above prior resistances 10500s). Horizontal trend is of non directional movement per traditional investing principles. Wall Street investors wouldn’t consider this anything of interest until it starts trending (up/down) back again. Weekly timeframe is still bullish, yet likely, if we close below prior weekly low 9078, then it’s high chances we visit back 8600s area for retest of weekly MA50 with high chances of flash crashing towards low 8000-7600 area to close CME breakaway gap to be filled with significant demand. As long as we keep closing middaily candles below MA100 it’s leaning more towards 8600-8700 weekly support or 8100 support of range lows. If we start closing candles back above averages it’s more retest of 10400s range highs on the table. Personally I was stopped out to 65/35 tether/bitcoin ratio on my short-term portfolio (70% of my btc holdings are long-term spot) around 9500s. Not entering back to btc unless it flips back above averages.
MTF trading below averages: 50, 200, 100m which is short term bearish from technical point of view. Momentum is close to the oversold area, yet with potential to drop. Momentum analysis suggests local movement past few days is more reminding of consolidation rather than downtrend. While being in short-term short positions bears should not get over excited just yet. It’s looking definitely more bearish than bullish locally, yet whale plays are more than likely while traders have entered into the weekend. Most probably the big move would be about to come within next 24-48h from now to get bitcoin of out short-term consolidation and bring more violence and liquidations. As long as it trades below averages it’s more likely to dive towards 8700s and/or lower. Back to bullishness when closing above averages.
Hourly trading inside a contracting consolidation of bearish continuation (as statistics would suggest). It’s descending triangle below MA50, 200 and 100. Momentum is down sloping with room for further declines. Expect lots of intraday liquidity hunts and bull/bear traps playing out. Local bullishness is back safely above reclaiming 9500 as a new support after successful breakout + retest sequence. Triangle breakdown target is 8900s lows. If this plays out as reversal pattern (still has chances of course for any larger whale long buy), expected target would be 9650. Also, podcast with Nicholas Merten (Data Dash – largest crypto youtube channel on Earth) and John McAfee coming soon. Check the last one below:
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