Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 19 2021)
Middaily is showing local throwback towards the baseline support which ascends. It suggests price of bitcoin has started sloping upwards on average and it is the first retest of ascending average, which in my opinion is more bullish than bearish per se. BPRO 12h is still on buy indication and whatever it says I will just follow. While trying to understand the market context and overall concept (upside pullback towards 50000s), I will respect my own trading system. There’s a chance to be right about the concept and be short-term cashed if BPRO 12h default flips bearish. Sell signal on my tuned system will not invalidate the upside concept though. Breaker Low 31554 is where bulls are in trouble once lost. As long as BTCUSD stays over the baseline and Breaker Low, bulls are safe. As the baseline ascends, price Is starting to get trapped and squeezed like a spring between the average and VWAP supply cluster because VWAP trendlines and average start converging/coiling. VWAP supply 42-45k is additionally strengthened by BWAP resistance right beneath the lower VWAP trendline around 42k. Once this zone of bears is reclaimed (breakout + retest holds with weekly close over that zone) bulls would target R2 46678 and resistance cluster R3+Breaker High 53994-55049. If global markets choose to risk off and things go south due to e.g. military conflict escalations, then S1 27519 support is the one to bid. While Im personally not expecting this necessarily to happen, you should always be ready. In finance it’s always better to be safe than sorry.
MTF lacking power from bulls which is typical to sideways. The lack of steam is what factually defines sideways. If it’s natural by definition, then it should not make anybody scared about it. When ranging between the extremes: low (30k) and high (42k) you should not expect anything concrete. It’s just chaotic, neutral, horizontal movement happening between the boundaries. It’s directionless. It means that even if BTC goes down to 30.1k again, it will still not be bearish as its inside NEUTRAL 30-42k range. Obviously, the price action of bitcoin is not looking best it could and it does struggle to bring any bullish rationale to average retail traders which makes them overly bearish. In my trading career I’ve learnt that the market (retails) is always right in the middle of a trend but always wrong at extremes. You don’t fight the “trend as trend is your friend” and at the same time you would have decent win rate if just counter traded what majority of freshly joined newbie traders say after extreme movements to the upside or to the downside. People are overly scared when market looks bad after dumps heavily and are overly bullish after market pumps heavily. Price technicals by BPRO suggest mean reversion towards 38-39k resistance cluster (BWAP 38k – baseline 39k). Potential upside range breakout comes successfully after the next upwards break through the baseline – that may be the final moves before the pattern resolves. Breaker High 39610 is key level for bulls that once reclaimed (breakout + retest holds), it should lead to retest of R1 47068 or R2 52125. Currently BPRO is on sell for those who trade 4h default setups so naturally price can still test low 34k. In case global FUD occurs, S1 30730 support may be next. While not expecting that currently, better to be ready always.
NUPL at 0.447 suggests optimism/anxiety for retails as for the sentiment read. The market is not over leveraged anymore currently as opposed to pre-crash 0.7+ NUPL ratio values. I read that as more bullish than bearish for long-term as the market reset itself and made new space for potential further upside expansion. Just like a car on the highway after running out of gas – at times you have to u-turn to the nearest gas station to refuel your car to continue the journey. The market ran out of gas (over leveraged and overbought over 58k) and now is refueling itself. I hope this picture makes sense to you as I try to simplify for your better understanding.
FEAR/GREED INDEX is crawling at the lows between 10 and 38 points showing how bearish sentiment it’s been for past 30 days so far. Fundamentally bitcoin or crypto have not changed or become irrelevant. It’s just under priced due to unexperience traders panic. Hence it provides buying opportunities as bitcoin is considered cheap gauging by the sentiment readings. For more information, please refer back to my recent webinar: