Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 15 2022)
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The middaily chart has recently showed substantial deterioration in terms of bitcoin percentage performance 2022 YTD.
Now, amid global financial markets crashing, bitcoin has tagged the 2017 ATH levels of 20000 USD. The polarity change principle suggests that the price action of bitcoin should find major support in this area. However, an overall panic-selling and money moving the market to the downside does not guarantee the support will remain unbroken. The aggressive capitulation spikes, price slips below are possible – especially, if combined with today’s resolutions during the FOMC meeting and fundamental, rate hiking decision.
Price wise, bitcoin has ultimate supports in the 200-week average area around 22000 USD, as well as the almost 4-year AVWAP support defined at 17781. This region, overall, makes a good candidate for the bottoming process. Still, it would fundamentally depend on today’s FED rate hike announcements.
The CTF Trailer is set at 25503, and I personally am not planning to deploy my short-term capital before that threshold is reclaimed by BTCUSD.
The MTF chart displays a violent outbreak on the volatility of medium-term bitcoin moves. However, this outbreak seems to be already included within the adjusted volatility range, defined by the BPRO Momentum Bands.
The BPRO Bands confirm that BTCUSD is in the low-end support territory, accounting for its historical volatility. A clear violation and breakdown below the 20000 USD may lead to further downside chop and sharp fluctuations, rapid convulsions. The upper extreme of the volatility range is averaged around 26000 USD, for the near-term.
In times like this, on the day of known fundamental and macroeconomic change expectations, volatility and risk may often be out of control and an unexpected short-term price shock may emerge – in either direction. More often than not, holding through the price shock pays off better than a risky attempt to trade through this 50/50 guessing game for which direction the price shock takes to unfold.
Catching the bottom is literal lottery. The odds are heavily against you and until you manage to catch all the falling knives, you risk going bankrupt before that happens. I would recommend you avoid it if your risk preference does not allow such.
The hourly chart shows a bunch of relevant support/resistance areas, which could serve as anchors for traders to adjust their trades around them.
Not only the 12h CTF Trailer remains relevant and respected on the hourly time frame, but it also gives a valid resistance projection at 26000 USD.
With today’s FOMC meeting, the main price action and new market direction decisions are going to take place on the hourly chart. A major sharp reversal coming from a positive shock reaction in the market (if reality turns out more bullish than expectations) may have longer-term implications. It should all start with the hourly chart, however. It may be beneficial to work to spot early reversal patterns and symptoms supporting a larger reversal idea.
While the support is given at 20558, the Level Lines define resistances are projected at following anchors:
These levels could be anticipated to serve as level-to-level references. In other words, when one level is breached, the next one in the direction of the movement
The capitulation event seems to have arrived. Amid escalated fears and panic selling, the sentiment has gone down to 7 points on the fear/greed index scale.
This metric should by no means be confused with timing indicator. It does not provide momentum insights like RSI or Stoch, or MACD would do. Instead, it provides valuable information on what the contrarian traders may consider appealing for their contrarian investments.
The panic selling is the very opposite of irrational exuberance and frenzy of reckless buying during euphoria stages of the market. Those who take the opportunities when every other retail investor thinks of capitulating and selling off at any cost to protect the remainings of their initial investments, they would also be the ones to benefit positively from the reversal soon after.
While it may seem like the end, it most likely is not. Bitcoin had been through many of the “death sentences” in the past – as per the chart visuals. While guessing the bottom remains … well,… guessing – buying into the ultimate panic selling may soon turn out to be more profitable stategy for many, upon their private risk preferences and utilities.
More insights and warnings have already been shared across the premium room chats, my private trading channel, exclusive calls hubs. If want to get discounted access ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, grab your discount link below.
Hope it helps.