Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 15 2020)
Weekly closed as somewhat of a bearish session that added tiny bit of bearish spice to the momentum. Local support broken down already and made lower low. Next support beneath is 8630-8700 demand provided by MA50. If MA50 is broken down and reclaimed as resistance then next support is MA100 7400s to fill breakaway 7600s CME gap. Until it happens, the weekly trading range is derived between 8630 and 10500. Until breakdown of MA50 and weekly close below, short positions should imo only be kept short-term and of frequent taking profit. Weekly scanner still showing bullishness. Definitely not any violent bearishness proven so far. Warning is there for sure to remain cautious due to upcoming volatility. Trail up stops on profitable positions not to give it back to the market. Bullishness in 100% mode back on track after closing above 10000 or best 10500.
Daily broke down and trading below trendline and MA50 is definitely not a bullish signal. I personally got stopped with my MTF longs and since 9400s I’m partially tethered (still 60-70% btc holdings are long term spot). This seems to be generating some buying opportunity with chances we retest range lows of 8100s per MA200 support. Momentum trading close to oversold area, which doesn’t necessarily make it a good shorting opportunity at current levels. So far quite decent response from tapping 62% correction level within the established 8100-10400s range. Only additional shorts I would take would be on the breakdown retest to make sure I’m minimizing potential losses. It still has high chances of faking out this breakdown to make majority short and provide compressed liquidity for whales with bullish trend from weekly scanner. At the same time, definitely bulls are in more danger than past week.
Middaily trading below MA50 and MA100 supports with MA200 support being down at 8000. It makes it quite a gap without averaged support for bitcoin which brings open door to slash all the way down to MA200 as only legit support on middaily chart. As long as we don’t reclaim MA50 back as support at 9500s then it stands a big danger for bulls and opportunity to short breakdown retest and tops towards low 8000s. Nevertheless, the shorts are considered only short-term plays – weekly scanner is still green and it involves quite a few indicators and majority is still bullish clearly. Shorts should be cautious. As mentioned, I’m not playing additional shorts unless breakdown retest around 9500-9700 area with clear momentum conditions – as always will cover these on my next exclusive webinar on this Thursday 2pm UTC.
MTF trading inside a falling wedge type of structure with decent bullish divergence on momentum, which generates a bullish potential over here. MTF analysis suggests retest of lost MA200-MA50 zone of 9450-9550 to be on the table. It’s back to the bullish side only when reclaimed these MAs as the support above 9550. Until then we are leaning slightly more towards the bearish unfold. If the wedge completes with breakout to the upside the target would be about 11200. Breaking down and closing below local lows of 8900 would rather mean continuity of dump. Bullish divergence at this moment should certainly not be mitigated.
Hourly trading below MA50,100,200 resistances now providing supply area 9300-9550 that can potentially be scalped for shorts. Bullish divergence also spotted on hourly chart which proves low rates around 9000 are not the safest ones to short. Suggested to short only breakdown retest. Short-term charts are rather for shorting tops than buying bottoms at least for now. Bullishness unlocked back above 9550 reclaim. Until then, we might be looking down to 8700s and 8100s for decent buying opportunity for MTF traders on a very decent discount. No strongest long signals as of now. Longs are safe only above 9550 as new support. Until then, might pick the short the top strategy down to 8700s (very strong weekly support) which if broken would lead to 8100s.
More details for premium subscribers of our Discord Trading Community in the exclusive #video-report channel.
Free 7 days trial. No commitments.