Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 14 2021)
Weekly candle closed nicely into previous weeks’ supply area showing off first signs of strength where it showed weakness before. It is a bullish sign. On top of that, we’re still following exactly the scenario given a month ago (feel free to scroll through my written and video reports, webinars to confirm it’s real). The scenario assumed few-week long PTSD sideways movement filled with extreme fear and generous buying opportunities across the market – the more generous buy, the more FUD news bitcoin received. Now intraweek price action is already testing the highs of past weeks while tackling BWAP resistance at 40.5k combined with weekly near-length baseline. It means that if current week closes over 41k there are strong chances we would see upside pullback towards the pre-breaker resistance 50-53k to form high-timeframe H&S breakdown retest. Extremely important note for all The Birb Nest members is so that you pay attention that the bottom Birbicator has just seen perfect and complete reset of the trend unseen ever since 4-7k levels. In my opinion, it is very likely that with this trend & momentum reset setup, BTCUSD may see new ATH within the next 3-4 months. Not the matter of IF, but matter of WHEN – provided that no wars escalate to crash global markets. Breaker High is 62584 and once this level is reclaimed on the weekly timeframe, BTC would visit 90-120k targets. Long-term views did not chance. Recent dump was over-escalated deviation similar to covid crash in march 2020.
Daily picture is looking great for upside pullback continuation imo. First time since mid March BTCUSD is printing daily candle over the BPRO volatility upper bands. It confirms that the short term price action favors upside more than the downside-oriented volatility. This is how major reversals are made. Condition is to confirm daily close over the upper band resistance at 39.3k as an early signal and daily close over 42.7k BWAP resistance as the most essential sign of reversal towards MTF supply area between R2 and R3 46473-53756.
BPRO flashed buy signal at 36-37k area after breaking through the baseline for the first time since before the crash happened. Breaker High 62076 is key level to reclaim by bulls according to BPRO volatility to unlock new ATH and 90-120k targets.
Fear/Greed index and extremely fearful sentiment on the market for the past month confirm the upside pullback.
Middaily is showing first factual reclaim on short-term volatility proving it is the first time since the crash when BTC is ready for the upside pullback. It is ready after it provided solid reclaim – breakout & retest sequence where the support was held (as opposed to previous attempts). This is bullish sign. BPRO volatility bands also reversed and display upside orientation now. Key level to close the session above is BWAP resistance at 42.3k and once this happens, the next resistances should get tested quite soon: R2 43333, Mean-R3 area 48968-50124. While BTC is trapped in one massive range between 30k and 65k, any price action that happens inside this range is still considered sideways. In other words, the uptrend does not resume until new highs over 65k are established and the downtrend is not valid as long as BTC trades over 30k support. The mid-range level is 48-50k and – assuming 42.3k is reclaimed – that is going to be the next major resistance for BTC. I see Breaker High 56850 being a probable level to be revisited within the next weeks-months yet first I want to observe the market reaction at the previous weakness area 50-55k. Long-term perspective is no different to what I said few months ago in reports, webinars – new highs are coming in Q4 for the final market climax and everything bubble bursts (btc+alts+defi) supported by FOMO news, FAANG companies accepting crypto payments, countries adopting crypto, Elon Musk bullish tweets, etc. That’s how it works. Again, I do always assume regular global conditions – no military WWIII escalation.
MTF picture displays decent shift in the momentum readings. As one can tell, the momentum pictured as the wave width (distance marked with dashed arrows vertically) on the selling side has vanished completely and now has been trading in trading range for past few weeks. This means that the market sell-off is fully ended and now is moving in horizontal tendency with chaotic price action, which is quite typical and nothing extraordinary. BPRO flashed 4h buy and although Im not trading this timeframe personally, it serves as a decent upside confirmation as long as BTCUSD closes above the upper volatility band resistance 41k. Until that happens, the market may oscillate between 36k and 40k in further chaotic range but because 12H and 1D charts come with BPRO buy signals, one may expect higher chances that bitcoin breaks to the upside sooner than later – within the next days. Horizontal baseline should be taken as a smooth reminder that trend is still not upwards – it’s just ranging so it’s still in the preparation warmup mode rather than full bull. In practice it does suggest that short term traders should not get too excited or too heavy on their trades just yet. Being in a position is fine, but being complacent about it is wrong.
Hourly picture displays exact definition of sideways movement. Price action, volatility bands, momentum – all of it swing back and forth in sequence and relatively chaotic manner. Currently hourly BTCUSD is tapping into overbought momentum and upper average volatility area 41-43k. It is likely that BTCUSD sees throwback to retest the baseline ~38k. Locally, key level to hold by bulls is Breaker High 37713 and as long as this is defended (no ugly daily close below), BTCUSD is set to reach R1-R2 area 45633-50536. In case BTCUSD breaks in an ugly manner below the baseline and Breaker High, it brings chances back to visit low 30000s again with a short-term stop at the Mean support 36066. Even if that occurs, the trend will not be bearish. It is still sideways locally between 30 and 43k.
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