Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (June 01 2020)
It’s truly special. Monthly closed as a bullish candle of 2000$ range and above 50% of entire range, which is bullish. On Bitstamp monthly session closed at 9446, which is below 9485 – main expected resistance that would solve 100% bullishness of the entire candle. For we closed below, if I was to put it on bullishness scale, It would likely be 9/10. In reality, bulls showed respect to 9485 resistance and fact we closed below means we’ve not passed this key level as reclaimed legitimately, may mean for June it should likely also stay significant with price oscillating around it. Having said that, it’s first time in a year that we’ve just seen bullish momentum cross on monthly picture, which is unprecedented event in bitcoin history. We closed also through monthly diagonal resistance which combined with bitcoin weekly bullish momentum, seems likely to push bitcoin towards new highs soon. IMO this is an EARLY signal and preliminary confirmation of new ATH coming. It’s of huge importance to me.
Weekly session sustained bullishness of bitcoin. There is tiny divergence shaping between actual momentum per Stochastic and TK histogram, that has just marked 2nd gray bar signaling TK momentum averages are getting closer to one another, hence the price-derived trend is considered in local TINY exhaustion that may easily be invalidated at any time. As you remember for reading through one of my previous reports, I would rather prefer to interpret such divergence as consolidation rather than any reversal. So far SMA50 has worked as a very strong support and demand from buyers, that seem to expect new highs as well. Especially that there is contango on futures. Spot price is cheaper than futures price on CME, which precedes the price most often, proving that institutional investors are trading at higher price than retail investors. This itself is bullish. Full weekly confirmation towards 11k+ expansion comes with a first week that closes above 10.5k which would be unquestionable event in bitcoin history. Until that happens, June might be of consolidation between MA50 8700s and 10k.
Daily closed as a bearish candle itself forming kind of bearish marubozu formation. Still inside the triangle but currently it is likely being one of the last hours before either way breakout comes. Momentum still not exhausted on daily with lots of room to grow in case of upside breakout. Symmetrical triangle breakout target is 11650-11860, which if reached, would fill CME gap from August 2019. MA50, 100, 200 all support upside direction. CME trading at premium around 9590 with highs if 9700s tapped three times. The next attempt should be the breaker. There is also hidden bullish divergence on daily – Higher Lows on Price Action, Lower Lows on Oscillator, which is natural trend continuation signal – and the trend is up. Local invalidation warning might come only after closing daily session below mid-range 50% retracement level of 9100-9200 support.
Middaily trading above all MAs 50,100,200. MA50 is support at 9320 which if lost and closed daily through the level, it might continue towards 8800, which if broken then MA100 8400 and MA200 7900. Momentum is overbought pointing towards local downtrend on intraday basis. Bulls want to see clean breakout and retest over diagonal resistance 9800. This is currently the most probable scenario to happen based on technical analysis of price action and oscillators. If triangle fails with bullish breakout, then downside breakout is of target 6.9-7.5k. If not in position, then safest to wait for breakout/breakdown retest to long/short.
MTF trades on hidden bullish divergence, which also comes with daily and middaily chart – tripple hidden bullish divergence. Local consolidation happening above MA100. It’s upside continuation signal provided by momentum analysis for this reason and there’s no room for over interpreting. It’s just reading from the chart. Obviously, whales can use that in a sophisticated way and trap entire market, which is super easy for anybody with a larger share in the market. Visualization for both directions depending on whether we hold or break 50% retracement level 9100, placed in the chart.
Hourly showing clear consolidation movement with choppy price action respecting double support from MA50 and MA100. Today or tomorrow around the daily close I would expect bitcoin to decide on the future of the triangle with a breakout to tell us whether we get closer to ATH with new highs 10.5k+ or we would need to wait a couple of weeks. More details in exclusive #video-report. Remember tomorrow 2nd issue of our redesigned newsletter is coming out. Register for free on website with link below.
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