Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 31 2021)
“Long story short: A 12h candle close inside VWAP resistance cluster 40-42.6k with a daily close over 40k, would suggest continuation to at least 42.6k. As long as Breaker High 35088 stays defended, R3 50426 is on the table. BPRO flashed buy at 31.6k and Ive been fully loaded ever since.”
That’s the concept from my Wednesday report which has happened to be true so far. Currently BTCUSD is trading inside BVWAP resistance cluster showing strength where it showed weakness before. It is a very bullish sign printed by yesterdays 38000-42000s pump. Breaker High 35088 remains unbroken and as long as it does, BTC is aiming for 46951 R2 or R3 54309 resistances.
BirbicatorPRO flashed indeed the ultimate buy signal at 31.6k and Im all in since then on my LTF-MTF portfolio. Before, on the extreme selling climax day, at 29.6k I loaded up long term bags with $300k worth of BTC and small x3.5 leveraged perpetual futures. Im not planning to close these trades until ~90k new ATH region later this year.
Invalidation of concept would be unexpected black swan crash below 31514. Chances for that are extremely low but you never know what Elon or FED comes out with. Don’t get over invested. Ever.
As MTF picture displays, there are currently two main support clusters that matter the most locally. The demand zone #1 is derived from local aVWAP and trendline dynamic support. Once broken with 4h or 1D candle close below, it validates the support cluster #2 area 36.5-37.5k (blue aVWAP + MA50) and some further consolidation between 37k region and 42k highs.
The middaily resistances given earlier at 46951 R2 or R3 54309 are the next targets assuming the said support clusters hold.
Having said that, the daily session closed as the higher candle of the entire since May 18th (74 days). Bulls showed strength where they showed weakness before in the range highs territory.
In my opinion, this is an early validation of an upside break out of this 74 day long MTF range. This would mean that the next technical target based on the price action and pattern analysis would be 56k. It may take weeks or months but with such oversold weekly chart, it is likely we don’t go lower than 28.8k lows this year.
Hourly chart presents BPRO with volatility bands around the price action on long-length trend settings to filter out the noise. BTCUSD currently retesting the baseline average with potential BWAP support beneath at 40.4k in case we see a local drop.
BPRO bands suggest that the volatility for the upcoming weeks is supposed to let bitcoin trade inside 36-46.7k area with high dose of certainty. Volatility based demand zone is between short- and long-range bands below the price action (36-38k) which confirms the support cluster #2 from 4h chart analysis.
Upper BPRO bands show the resistance to be in 44.6-46.8k area and it would rather not be suggested to long right into this area when we get there.
Bull trend indalidation comes with a proper breakdown with weekly/monthly close below Breaker Low 31579, which is rather improbable unless unexpected black swan event comes to crash global markets.
IMO, we’re looking at the 74day range upside breakout which is supposed to take BTCUSD into 53-58k region in the coming weeks. Only news driven crash would take bitcoin back to range lows of 30k.
The ratio suggests we’re back at 0.527 last seen rising in this territory in November 2020 when BTCUSD was trading at $13-14k.
Knowing of the bigger picture, I consider the past months to be of similar pattern to what BTCUSD had in April-November 2017 before bitcoin kicked off its final leg up of the 2015-2017 bull market.
Expecting similar results this time for Q4 2021 with new ATH in 90-120k region.
Bitcoin: Number of Active Addresses (7d Moving Average)
As glassnode explains, it stands for the number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.
As the chart presents, there is certain growth lag on the onchains side versus technical price of bitcoin. It suggests to me that bitcoins price has been going up sharply and it’s not even backed by onchain yet. When price is moving up fast but the indicator barely moves, it may suggest about the bigger upside growth potential.
The full potential would come when new people would start joining in to FOMO and push bitcoins price higher. Id expect that to be the case after BTCUSD reclaims 45k – it’s 200-day mean price.
Normally, this tiny divergence described could mean a markets weakness. Here though, I read that more as disbelief 2.0 stage of the market as after severe crash, and fading every pump since 32k by retails getting liquidated counter trading 31.6k massive buy signal from BirbicatorPRO. (Remember you can still get it while it’s cheap at lowered prices right now with the link attached below).
In case you missed my yesterdays webinar, make it your homework to check it and find out more about new ATH concepts. Hope it helps!
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