Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 24 2021)
HTF 1W:
The week has not closed yet but as long as it does over 32k, the bulls are regaining a bit of strength on the high timeframe with proper deviations beneath. It’s clear so far that any downside deviation below 32k was quickly bought up the same week, which confirms technical strength of this area making it demand zone.
Kind reminder how EXTREMELY OVERSOLD BTCUSD is per trend & momentum. Birbicator on the bottom suggests complete reset of the market unseen since September 2019 (!).
50-week moving average has got proper mean reversion which confirms that the market is not overbought or extended to the top anymore. It’s made enough upside space for a proper bounce. Because it’s a weekly timeframe, it all lasts weeks not hours, which is what confuses most of the new traders expecting immediate effects or TA doesn’t work (lol).
In fact, it’s the first 50-week mean reversion since the covid market crash. It is BULLISH.
I’m long on my medium-term portfolio and added $300k to my long-term bags slightly below 30k on the most recent 29.2k dump.
HTF 1D:
Daily candle closed perfectly inside the key local supply zone showing strength where it showed weakness before. It’s a bullish sign. If we see a similar, strong candle closing through/over 34.5k there are very high chances BTCUSD revisits the next supply layer 42.6-44.6k in the following weeks. Don’t forget about ultimate boss resistance cluster based on volume 53.5-58k, which is the last region stopping bulls against reaching new all time highs. Eventually to be broken later this year to complete the 5th Elliot Wave with final leg up into 90-120k region and ultimate altseason. I explained perfect rational reasoning behind it on my yesterdays webinar.
Condition to sustain the bullishness is closing the weekend and Sunday’s daily close over 32k.
HTF 12H:
The middaily picture trades still inside the very same range for past 70 days between 30k and 43k and as long as it does, BTCUSD is still vulnerable and likely to see more fakeouts whenever intraday timeframes are overbought or oversold (extremes).
BPRO flashed the buy signal~31500s and ever since I’ve been long on my medium-term holdings.
Breaker High 35088 is key levels to reclaim for bulls, which in case it happens, should lead to volume-based resistance cluster (BVWAP trendlines space) 39.7-42.7k.
If we see a strong monthly/weekly close inside or over the volume based supply, R3 unlocks at 48844.
Breaker Low 31512 confirms that this level must be defended for bulls to be safe.
MTF 4H:
MTF continues 30-43k range per the price action. BPRO volatility bands suggest that the expected volatility for next days and weeks places BTCUSD in 29-34k (short-range bands) and 27.3-35.5k region (long-range bands).
Locally, the key resistance to break and close the day through is Breaker High 34506. If that happens, we welcome R1 38016.
In case Breaker Low 30354 is broken with daily/weekly close below e.g. due to intensified unexpected FUD, FED’s news about rates hikes, China bans, Elon’s manipulation, etc. then it is likely to retest the volatility based support between 27.3k and 29k.
Besides, as the MTF range has not resolves yed, it is not suggested to trade the range other than:
- Buying range lows 28-30k
- Selling range highs (40-43k)
- Buying breakout RETEST over 43k
- Selling breakdown RETEST below 30k
That being said, do avoid using high leverage through the next days-weeks.
FEAR/GREED INDEX
The index at 22 points on the scale showing the good ol’ extreme fear. One can tell that despite the upside growth on BTCUSD for~15% recovery, the crowds are still scared of this upside movement. This is a bullish divergence.
It means despite the market is going up the herds are bearish. It is perfect definition of DISBELIEF. Yet, because the disbelief stage of this bull market was perfectly located through September 2020, I hereby call it DISBELIEF 2.0.
Upside move off the supports with bearish sentiment means that there’s likely going to be a short squeeze combined with FOMO, which should let BTCUSD recover into 40k region or higher.
Eventually, the market will revert to it’s 200-day average which currently is at 45k.
To give you even more complete reasoning behind all my thoughts, make sure you catch up with my yesterday’s webinar for full altcoin market analysis and bitcoin TA. Watch and subscribe to our YouTube channel with the link below.
https://www.thebirbnest.com/free-trial/
