Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 21 2021)
“Weekly candle closed right at the weekly support of 50-week moving average. The current week has already made lower low locally while still trading inside 30 (28.8)k – 43k range. Weekly momentum per Birbicator on the bottom is heavily oversold for past few weeks. While it is NOT a top/bottom indicator for the market, it informs about historically good risk/reward investment levels from the high timeframe point of view. It means that even if bearish FUD news comes in and the market drills the hole down towards 23-24k floor, wherever one enters – be it at 30, 28, 26 or 24k – it should still ensure profitability over longer period of time. Currently, intraday price action is of course not looking good for bulls.
The way I read it, it might be risky but decent entry zone anywhere inside 23-30k territory. Obviously, if BTCUSD crashes another 20-30% from current levels, alts would get complete reset. I don’t suggest you should catch that knives.
If this week closes under 50MA 32k, then this increases the odds in favor of 23-24k.”
What I wrote above on Monday still stands relevant as the weekly session has not closed obviously. I’m calling this once again here for you to notice how extremely oversold BTCUSD has become on macro timeframes. Last times bitcoin was at these low historical Birbicator levels were September-October 2019 when BTC was trading in 6-9k region, AND 2018 bottom ($3000-4000 per BTC). You know what came afterwards.
IMO, with this intensified climax on fear after yesterday’s 30k break, extremely oversold trend & momentum on 1w, 1d, 12h, 4h makes it all good long term buying opportunity. Don’t ever expect any indicator to show you perfect top or bottom. Chances for that are lower than winning a lottery ticket.
Similarly, the daily candle has not closed yet. The purpose of this chart is to display the most essential resistance clusters – the areas marked in orange. Upside recovery, whenever it comes, should work as a 3-wave (upside correction of downtrend) or 5-wave movement (proper uptrend aiming 65k+). This suggests that whenever one of the underlying supply clusters is broken through and reclaimed with weekly/monthly close over the region, BTCUSD would be expected to go “straight” to the next supply cluster, and so on.
Supply#1 33.1-34.6k -> MA50 combined with VWAP trendline anchored at the latest local peak
Supply#2 42.6-44.6k -> MA200 combined with VWAP trendline anchored at the ATH
Supply#3 53.5-56.8k -> Volume cluster where most liquidations/biggest volume showed up in 65-30k drop.
These zones should work as sort of magnets.
The middaily closed a beautiful bullish engulfing candle locally. Bounced off volatility support from BPRO lower bands 27.6-29.2k after sweeping oversold trend and momentum lows and trapping late bears below 30k all over again. It does strengthen 30k support layer in my conviction. Currently at the baseline and once closed daily candle through 31.8-32k region, BTCUSD may see a buy signal from BPRO 12h.
Breaker Low 31564 MUST be reclaimed by bulls with daily close over that level in order for bulls to have credibility and continue upside recovery. If that’s the case, then next local resistance is 34.3-36k. The arbitrary level is Breaker High 35088 and weekly close over that level should let bulls expand towards R1-R2 region 38.5-42.6k, where the next BVWAP based resistance cluster is. See weekly close over that zone, and R3 49343 comes next.
As long as we keep closing sessions below Breaker Low 31564, bitcoin is at risk of rapid declines down to ~24000s values. CONDITION for that is to close ugly candle below 28.2k (1W Breaker Low)
Besides, still one and the very same old range 30-43k for past 65 days.
MTF continues the range. Currently, the key volatility extremes come as follows:
volatility-based support: 26.4-27.9k
volatility-based resistance: 32.8-34.3k
This suggests that short-term range is between 27.9k and 32.8k, while the medium-term range for next weeks is 26.4k-34.43k.
Besides, as the MTF range has not resolves yed, it is not suggested to trade the range other than:
- Buying range lows 28-30k
- Selling range highs (40-43k)
- Buying breakout RETEST over 43k
- Selling breakdown RETEST below 30k
That being said, do avoid using high leverage through the next days-weeks.
NET REALIZED PROFIT/LOSS
Kind reminder that Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss.
Currently trading at 0.35 ratio unseen ever since May 2020, which was freshly after March 2020 covid crash where bitcoin was extremely undervalued. For this reason, I claim that BTCUSD is currently AS UNDERVALUED AS IT WAS AT $6000-9000 VALUES. Then, it was pure disbelief stage of this bull market.
The bull market 2018/2021 is NOT over in my opinion. IMO we’re looking at disbelief 2.0 and the last buying opportunity of this kind during this bull run while still missing the 5th Elliot Wave.
Quick reminder for how it works:
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With this Fear and Greed Index, you can try to save you from your own emotional overreactions. There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means “Extreme Fear”, while 100 means “Extreme Greed”. See below for further information on our data sources.
Different factors we’re including in the current index:
Volatility (25 %)
Market Momentum/Volume (25%)
Social Media (15%)
Yesterday’s 30k break caused a spike on the fear side of the index, crashing down to 10 points on the scale, which is rarely ever seen. Only several times the market has showed that oversold/fearful environment.
Historically, it does not provide clean top/bottom indications for specific prices. Instead, it informs you about historical opportunities to enter/exit positions with relatively good profitability.
It suggests that whoever buys into the extreme fear territory, where crowds are scared, not long after the traders would remain strongly profitable. In fact, even 2018 bear market depression was of better sentiment than currently. It is unprecedented event. Extreme fear has always been good buying opportunity where average ROI should be positive after some time.
It suggests that practically any purchase of bitcoin in the past 65 days should provide you with positive ROI and good returns in the next few months based on historical records.
Other than this, kind reminder that currently you can enter exclusive corners of The Birb Nest mostly at the old, lowered pricing, which makes it the better monthly costs, the longer duration of membership you pick. We’re not planning for the remaining part of 2021 to change the pricing. If your exclusive membership is due to expire and you like to prolong, re-start or upgrade, get in on the lowered pricing with the link below.