Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (August 10 2020)
Weekly picture is super clear to me. Bitcoin made a higher high on a macro scale. Weekly closed highest since January 2018 and higher than 2019 highest close. It makes it bullish. Also, most of the supply spike of weekly session two weeks ago was absorbed with demand in the area of the candle body between 11000-11650. This means the supply area is thinner and bears are weaker. Momentum is bullish while trading around the overbought area. HTF support area is given by prior resistance of 10540 and 10150 being the pre-breaker candle’s high. In case of any dips, worth having bids down there, no matter how not much expected it seems. Analyzing the Fibonacci Extensions it seems the target is 14600 and that’s what I would expect to arrive sooner than later in the upcoming weeks and months. Until then we might range a bit on lower timeframes
Daily closed as consolidative candle with body oriented in the higher part of the intraday range, we could to an extent call it harami/inside bar. Daily chart clearly shows actual supply provided between 11800 and 12100 levels where we could anticipate further local distribution of profits and shorts piling up until invalidated with an upside break through this resistance area. Mid-range territory provides short-term bounce opportunity if price is found between 11150 and 11350 levels. Ultimate support area is as given on the weekly, 10150-10500 and this one is very thick. Momentum on a daily scale is not necessarily the most indicative, just like any other indicator that may be misled by such liquidity hunting that has just occurred. For this reason, I confirm to keep interpreting that recent movements as part of the PTSD effect of 12.1-10.5k dump and consolidative nature of this territory. Price is quite distant from daily averages: MA50 10000, MA100 9800, MA200 8800. In case of unpredicted news-driven events/black swans, these levels would serve as supports. Obviously, not expecting these to be tapped anytime soon. If 12134 resistance is reclaimed as a new support, it would most likely teleport bitcoin to 13k.
Middaily is showing clean supply of the last closed session between 11750 and 12000. Longing inside this area may not be good idea short-term wise. Mid-range LTF demand zone is 11-11.3k and short term dips towards this area should be expected to be filled with buys and short-term bounces. Don’t short mid-range for this reason either. 10.5-10.8k zone is definitely interesting to place bids for those who missed the rally. Momentum is lacking direction locally and going sideways. It tells that bitcoin is not in the best place for shorts and longs unless scalps .
MTF picture presented with the use of volume profile and most interesting price level at 11700 to be the strongest support analyzing the volume of transactions closed at that level. It clearly indicates the importance of this level as a support and as long as this level is held, bulls are safe on a short timeframe. MA50 support comes at 11500 level while MA200 support at 10250. 11200 is also key level based on the volume profile that aligns well with concept of mid-range of the entire PTSD consolidation oscillating around 11300. These are the levels that need to be monitored and can be played as entries while applying risk management rules and concepts. Of course, best to follow the official call.
Hourly seems to be copy-pasting the same PTSD dump mechanism and applying that on a narrower scale between 11470 and 12000 that I consider now to be a consolidation inside a larger consolidation setup. This means we could expect lots of intraday liquidity hunts. This zone of range highs 11.9-12.1k is definitely showing how whales are taking profit with market sells. Short-term bitcoin might be slightly overvalued which, as mentioned many times, means short scalps can be played around the range highs area until proven wrong. Besides, entire zone of 11470 till 11700 turns out to confirm it’s an interesting idea to buy back and in the chart it’s represented as the lower candle shadow. Fragments marked with orange areas show very similar “pattern” of bitcoin. Local dips are being bought back quite aggressively which shows bullish sentiment from retail investors. Find more details in exclusive #video-report channel and recording. P.S. Don’t forget that inside TOMORROW’s issue of THE NESTLETTER you will find -25% discounted coupon for any of our subscription plans so that when you renew your membership or buy a new one, you save big $ in your pocket. Go to #announcements for more.
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