Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 19 2021)
Weekly candle closed right at the weekly support of 50-week moving average. The current week has already made lower low locally while still trading inside 30 (28.8)k – 43k range. Weekly momentum per Birbicator on the bottom is heavily oversold for past few weeks. While it is NOT a top/bottom indicator for the market, it informs about historically good risk/reward investment levels from the high timeframe point of view. It means that even if bearish FUD news comes in and the market drills the hole down towards 23-24k floor, wherever one enters – be it at 30, 28, 26 or 24k – it should still ensure profitability over longer period of time. Currently, intraday price action is of course not looking good for bulls.
The way I read it, it might be risky but decent entry zone anywhere inside 23-30k territory. Obviously, if BTCUSD crashes another 20-30% from current levels, alts would get complete reset. I don’t suggest you should catch that knives.
If this week closes under 50MA 32k, then this increases the odds in favor of 23-24k.
Daily momentum and trend are oversold as well, which rarely ever aligns well with deep weekly oversold market condition. The market has NOT been trading for the past 60-70 days. This chaotic sideways movement accompanied by extreme fear sentiment on the market, shows complete lack of direction, numerous fake breakouts, false signals, etc. That’s the perfect definition of no trend aka sideways/range.
Daily default baseline is seeing a retest. Daily BPRO levels suggest Breaker Low 29808 is the main support to be held for bulls. Otherwise, if closed an ugly daily/weekly candle under, it unlocks the path towards S1 23958.
Again, all it usually takes is one tweet from Elon or FUD news from FED, binance closing, CZ jail time, and so on. Beware the news driven volatility.
Long-term bulls are back rather only over 44k.
The middaily candles continue to chop right around the default baseline. Breaker Low 31554 which was the main level for 12h bulls to maintain, got broken with close below. It’s not looking encouraging for bulls for sure locally. Again, local weakness does not mean BTC overnight lost its fundamental values or became worthless just like that. Instead it informs about potential dips/buying opportunities should certain conditions be met.
As long as we trade below 31554 on 12h, S1 25499 is the next support to watch based on BPRO. As you may remember, after BPRO flashed sell indication under 2 weeks ago, I did follow that so now Im waiting with cash on side.
If such a news-driven dump comes, I’d use some of free cash to load LONG-TERM bags while I’d wait for short-term bags to be filled AFTER confirming bull trend change indication on 12h BPRO.
Breaker High is 35918 and only after daily/weekly close over that level, bulls should regain the steam to crawl in to BVWAP trendlines space – volume based resistance cluster 40-42.4k. Until then, 25499 should be monitored. As always in trading, better to be safe than sorry so worth keeping some money aside to load on bigger discounts if they ever come.
MTF chart is looking 100% uninteresting to trade as long as it stays inside 28.8-43k range. Breaker Low 31379 got broken and unless we see strong bullish close back over that level, S1 24789 is on the table. Breaker High 34781 suggests that if this level is broken, bulls may continue the recovery towards R1 37968 and beyond.
Overall, this must be one of the most boring sideways full of salt and bearish sentiment I’ve seen in many many months – if not years. Extreme chop in either direction. It is suggested to stay cautious.
Again, it is not suggested to trade the range other than:
- Buying range lows 28-30k
- Selling range highs (40-43k)
- Buying breakout RETEST over 43k
- Selling breakdown RETEST below 30k
That being said, do avoid using high leverage through the next days-weeks.
Hourly chart shows expected volatility to happen inside 27.3-35.4k territory for next weeks and 28.8-33.8k area of shorter term focus. Price action has been completely flat for the past few days and it just feels as if bitcoin stopped moving at all.
Breaker High 33786 needed for bulls to reclaim to climb up outside the regular volatility.
Breaker Low is 31303 and as long as we keep closing the candles below that level, there is a chance of falling right into volatility based support 27.3-28.8k with support at S1 24778.
NET REALIZED PROFIT/LOSS
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio below 0.39 suggests the market is currently at practically “the same” stage of freshness/exhaustion that it was at disbelief stage in September 2020 when BTCUSD was trading at $10000. It suggests that the market has reset to its pre-third-wave values. In other words, it got wiped out based on onchain while price remains at x3 the values seen in Q2-Q3 last year. Paradoxically, I’d read that as bullish for the next quarters (long-term) as it suggests the market has made enough of new fresh space fo big inflows whenever they come. It’s switching slowly into the standby mode therefore, just waiting to absorb the new bargain hunters.
Currently trading at 24 points on the scale with yet another day of extreme fear. Historically, it does not provide clean top/bottom indications for specific prices. Instead, it informs you about historical opportunities to enter/exit positions with relatively good profitability.
Whether or not BTCUSD drops to 23-24k region, the market is already extremely olversold on almost all timeframes at the rates unseen even in 2018 bear market depths or in the recorded 3 year history.
It is hence an unprecedented event in bitcoins history. And history teaches, that traders who buy into extreme fear are usually way more profitable than those who sell in these regions. More explanation comes in #nc-video-report channel.
If not a member to The Birb Nest yet and want to discover personalized trading strategies, 24/7 team support, exclusive webinars, daily market reports by certified analysts, and much more then sign up 7 days free with this link – https://www.thebirbnest.com/free-trial/