Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 16 2022)

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart has printed a minor breakout failure at the daily close. Short-term implications to follow.

The daily bar attempted an upwards breakout through the main resistance level at 21132 USD. Despite breaking through the boundary, the bar closed below the resistance, committing to the breakout failure.

As for the fakeout, the shor-term implications may favor a mean-reverting move to the downside, as the range high area has failed to follow through. The consolidation pattern prefers short-term swings between the range lows, and the range highs.

While the support cluster is defined by two support lines at $18595, and $17592, the BWAP block provides a short-term bounce cushion at 20.2-20.7k USD.
Until the CTF Trailer Stop $21132 is reclaimed on the daily or weekly term, BTC has more odds to continue flat or move downwards, as the bears are in control.

MTF 4H:

The MTF chart, clearly, is trapping BTC prices in a range-bound movement, as it struggles to find its trend.
Yet another time, the CTF Trailer has flipped its polarity, now to the upside. The bull note has flashed, as the bulls re-gained the control over the short-term price action. However, the reliability is arguable, for as long as BTC moves inside the sideways pattern. Until BTC breaks out, the price will lack defined direction, persistence in any direction.

The CTF Trailer Stop is at $19575, for the short-term. Until the level breaks down, the bulls are in charge in the short-term.

LTF 1H:

The short-term price action of Bitcoin has formed a supply cluster in the zone at 20880-21164 USD.

After rejecting the highs of 21200 USD following subsequent breakout failures and overthrows, BTC may be due for a short-term mean reversion, to the downside.

While it is not set in stone, weekends tend to generate lower volume, and decreased volatility as traditional exchanges do not trade through the weekends. This may favor, a bit more, the downwards price action development, as decreased demand from buyers may not hold the slow distribution process on top of the move.

As soon as the resistance cluster is broken through, and BTC shows strength where it’s showed weakness earlier, the odds will improve for the bulls to build a medium-term upwards trend.

FEAR/GREED INDEX:

Now, at 21 points on the scale, the sentiment maintains its bearish consensus.

The extreme fear sequence continues, as the traders give up on their hopes for the things to be great again.

Bitcoin is now expected to move downwards, and probably not recover, according to a broader anticipation from underinformed herds.

Typically, this had generated contrarian opportunities in the past, which were proved profitable.

Will it be the same now? There’s not guarantee to it.

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.

Hope it helps. God bless.

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