Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (July 14 2021)
Daily session, while still unclosed, has seen some intraday bounce off the support given earlier at 31.5k. The support is considered technically strong as it is showing confluence between BPRO Momentum Wave, lower daily Bollinger Band, low timeframes BPRO volatility supports. Current resistance starts at 37.7k and reaches up to 38.5k in cluster, with next resistant levels at 40k, 42k, 45k. Key volume based resistances: 38.5k, 45k. Closing week over 45k may suggest further upside recovery into 48-50k region or even 52-53k region, which I still consider is in the cards. As long as BTCUSD keeps closing the days over 31.5k bulls are “safe”. Yet it does not mean one should not be ready in case another FUD news series comes from FED or Elon Musk, etc. Closed daily session below may cause further declines towards 29.5k, which puts BTCUSD at yet another risk of massive liquidations. If weekly candle closes below 29.5k, the next technical target reaches as low as 23-24k.
MTF chart stands one with my latest update for the same timeframe, mainly due to the fact that none of the trading range boundaries described for short or medium term have not been broken to the outside. For this reason the main volume-based resistance cluster remains in 34.1-34.7k with Breaker High 34782. Once broken and reclaimed with daily/weekly close over that zone, 37.5k-38.5k region is unlocked for bulls per the volatility. Breaker Low at 31449 must be held in order to secure bulls’ support. One can notice series of local fakeouts which initiated with the beginning of July, then with first fakeout on July 8th and next one which happened overnight today. Each breakdown was followed by rapid local recovery on intraday timeframes, hence I call it fakeouts. Mind that whichever chart patterns, indications you see in the chart happen inside the trading range, they are rather not fully reliable and instead are full of traps/uncertainty. Current volatility BPRO bands suggest local trading should swing between 30.3 and 35.6k, while break outside these boundaries may lead either to 28.7k or 37.3k.
Again, it is not suggested to trade the range other than:
1. Buying range lows 28-30k
2. Selling range highs (40-43k)
3. Buying breakout RETEST over 43k
4. Selling breakdown RETEST below 30k
That being said, do avoid using high leverage through the next days-weeks.
Another choppy day inside the extreme fear area with 21 points on the scale. Again, it is NOT going to give you perfect pinpoint bottom level or peak prices. Instead, it returns valuable information that historical records suggest that buying into extreme fear has always been way more profitable on average than selling.
It suggests that whoever buys into the extreme fear territory, where crowds are scared, not long after the traders would remain strongly profitable. In this context, it does NOT exclude any sharp downside volatility towards 23-24k region in case any unpredicted FUD news comes in to trigger bots selloff.
P.S. Kind reminder that choppy sieways is coming to an end with contracting volatility and therefore one should avoid trading with leverage to avoid rapid liquidations – applies to BTC and alts. Apply the instructions shared in this report to remain safe. God bless.
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