Daily Report – Bitcoin and Market Update (January 18 2023)

HTF 12H:

The middaily chart shows a slower-paced price action, pushing the prices higher. So far, the incremental steps higher in the price chart of Bitcoin have confirmed that anything over $21000 has been a subject of selling.

After a decisive breakout over the 200-day trend, the newly-emerged trend will likely persist in the breakout direction – to the upside. However, the sellers need to be forced to capitulate first. The bulls need at least a daily close above 22000 USD to convince more traders to enter the market, elevating the prices even further.

Quite often, Bitcoin likes to surprise with overextended moves just when it looks due to correct after breakouts.

The main recommendation is to refrain from fighting the trend.

MTF 4H:

The MTF outlook gives a deeper insight into the short-term distribution spikes above $21000.

Even though multiple upper shadows have been outstanding, the price continues to make new highs, which is constructive.

At least the confirmation for upward continuation needs to come with a break and close above 21650 USD.

A price action-based support looks likely at 18500 USD.

FEAR & GREED INDEX

At 52 points on the scale, the sentiment is rated as “neutral”.

As mentioned in the latest report, “Traders will often suffer from loss aversion, fear of missing out, representativeness bias, misinterpretation bias, regret bias, recency bias, hindsight bias and other types of behavioral errors, resulting in positive feedback loops, empowering the vertical rallies to continue into so-called “fat tails”. Such trends are exceptionally long-lasting series of price moves in the same directions, which are too consistent to call it an accident. This is the nature of trends in financial markets. They rarely ever arrive, yet once in a while and exceptionally strong ascend or descend will appear, and will continue to persist in the direction of the breakout. Now, the fear seems more attributed to the regret of missing out, and cognitive dissonance, as those who have missed the move up will try to bargain and discount the information, compartmentalising it in a more comforting way.”

The neutrality in the sentiment can be associated with traders starting to realize, that they might have missed out on the market bottom, making them rush in the market for purchases.

Even though the market looks willing to persist higher, caution is recommended.

Hope it helps.

God bless.

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